448
FXUS61 KGYX 121104
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
704 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes south of the region today, with another
chance of afternoon showers. A more widespread period of
showers and rain is likely beginning Monday night into
Wednesday. Conditions dry out late in the week as New England
sees a period between systems, and then may turn unsettled again
by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7am Update...Minor update to take the Frost Adv down and update
some temp/sky trends. High cirrus has overtaken the area, and
will likely linger for the day. Meanwhile, surface heating will
promote the development of a lower deck of cu today.

Previous Discussion...
Plenty of high clouds today as low pressure skirts south of the
area. Additional convergence should allow for more scattered
showers today, with the greatest concentration over the
mountains and foothills. These should then track into the
interior and coast by late afternoon and the early evening
hours.

Instability today will still be capped by a temp inversion
around 650mb, while it is deeper today than Sat, don`t expect
much more impact from precip other than a downpour directly
under the shower and maybe gusts around 25 mph. Graupel
potential seems limited, and would be reliant on lifting
assistance (perhaps along terrain or seabreeze boundary). HREF
probabilities do pools the greatest amount of CAPE towards the
ME capitol region.

Despite another increase in diurnal cloud cover, temps push
towards 60 today. With weak low level winds, expect seabreeze to
make its way inland early this afternoon. This will keep cooler
temps in the 50s for much of the immediate coast an inland a few
miles.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Showers dissipate through the evening. There should be less in
the way of high and mid clouds tonight into Monday, with low
cloud slowly dissipating from daytime convection. With light
winds once again, this will bring the chance for more frost
tonight amid some pockets of good radiational cooling. Fog may
also form where daytime showers wet the surface.

Monday will see mostly dry conditions, but showers will be
moving towards the area come the afternoon. These may be starved
of forcing and moisture, thus have kept slight chance PoPs
through the afternoon. Monday will mark a step change in warmer
temperatures, with highs pushing into the mid to upper 60s for
much of the area despite increasing clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview...

Low pressure moves closer Monday night and Tuesday, spreading
showers and rain into much of the area at times into at least
Wednesday. The system moves away on Thursday, with a dry day
looking most likely on Friday before another system moves toward
the area on Saturday.

Details...

By Monday night and Tuesday, moisture drawn northward by
southern low pressure begins to interact with a cold front
associated with the Canadian low pressure system. Showers expand
across northern and western areas Monday night and Tuesday, but
likely won`t expand into southern and coastal areas until
Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the front sags southward.

The low passes well to the south on Wednesday, with the
northern edge of the rainfall near or into southern forecast
areas. Wednesday and Wednesday night are trickier forecasts,
with the chance that the rain remains to our south most of the
day. Rain looks more likely than not at this point, but it would
only take a little more of a southward jog of this system to
leave Wednesday mostly dry. However, if it does trend more
northward, periods of showers or rain would likely linger into
Thursday.

With this slow moving pattern and multiple cut off low pressure
systems, it looks likely to raining somewhere in our CWA for
several days from Monday through Wednesday, but not everywhere
at once. There are likely to be breaks in the rain and clouds,
similar to what we`ve seen the last couple of days, but are
difficult to time out at this point.

Friday looks like the next chance for a mostly dry day as New
England has its next best chance to be between systems. But then
by next weekend, it looks like another cut off low will
gradually spin northwestward, spreading moisture toward New
England. High pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will
attempt to thwart this system toward the southwest, but there
are too many other low pressure systems to get through first
before the details of this one become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today, with SHRA across most interior
ME terminals. Showers should stay north of southern NH TAF
sites. Patchy fog will be possible tonight where these showers
pass. VFR continues Monday, although ceilings will be lowering
west to east as additional showers approach the area.

Long Term...Showers likely accompany MVFR ceilings Monday night
and Tuesday across northern and western terminals. These
restrictions spread to the remaining terminals late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Showers and MVFR ceilings likely linger across
coastal and southern terminals on Wednesday, with some
improvement across northern and western terminals more likely.
Conditions gradually improve toward VFR everywhere by Thursday,
and linger through at least Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Below SCA conditions as high pressure continues to
drift overhead. Low pressure passes south of the waters today,
with some showers nearing the coast this evening. More breezy SE
winds arrive for Monday.

Long Term...A slow moving low pressure system and cold front
approach the waters Tuesday and Wednesday, with SCA conditions
possible on Tuesday with southwesterly flow. This low passes
south of the waters Wednesday and Thursday, with the front
likely crossing slowly Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Clair