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000
FXHW60 PHFO 170642
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
842 PM HST Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will prevail as high pressure
builds to the north. Light to moderate northerly winds will shift
out of a more typical northeast trade wind direction Wednesday,
then remain in place through the weekend. As the trades return,
clouds and light showers will favor the typical windward and mauka
locations overnight through the morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The evening satellite imagery showed deep low pressure to the
northeast and its attendant surface front that moved through over
the past couple of days well east of the state as a remnant
trough. The back edge of the low-level cloud band associated with
trough, however, remains hung up over windward sections of the
Big Island. This has led to cloudy conditions with spotty light
showers through the day. Expect these conditions to persist into
the overnight hours, then shift east of the area Wednesday.
Elsewhere, dry and pleasant conditions will continue with light
northerly winds.

The latest model guidance has initialized well with the current
pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing through the
weekend as high pressure builds north of the state. The northerly
winds will linger overnight (light enough for localized land
breezes to form), then shift out of the northeast Wednesday.
Although mostly dry conditions will prevail, a weak upper trough
moving in Wednesday through Thursday, combined with a remnant low-
level moisture boundary settling south into the area may be
enough for a few light showers over north through northeast facing
slopes. The breezy northeast trades will weaken briefly late
Friday through Saturday as a weak system passes to the north, then
shift out of the east and return to breezy levels Sunday into
early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light north to northeast flow will allow local land and sea breeze
development through tomorrow. Expect brief MVFR conditions across
windward and mauka locations, especially within sparse showers.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.

No AIRMETS are in effect and none are expected through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate northerlies will veer to the NE late tonight
through Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the region
and drift east as trades persist into next week, becoming moderate
to fresh by this weekend.

Surf along south facing shores came in notably higher than
guidance and will hold through Wednesday. Overlapping south swells
will keep elevated surf through the end of the week. The current
northwest swell will become increasingly north as it gradually
diminishes tonight through Wednesday. Surf along east facing
shores remains small through late week before trending up slightly
as trade strengthen late this week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Powell
MARINE...Shigesato