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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140718
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
218 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

As you walk out the door this morning, you might think to yourself
"is it just me or does it feel more humid today?"...and the answer
to that question is a resounding YES. Persistent onshore flow and
elevated moisture advection as surface low pressure develops in the
Northern Plains has led to dew points climbing into the low to mid
60s. The low to mid 60s are also the temperatures you`ll feel early
this morning. Going into this afternoon, ridging aloft builds back
in. High pressure at 850mb pushes out further to the east allowing
for southwest flow aloft to return a few thousand feet above the
surface. This leads to an increase in 850mb temperatures to 17-20°C
range, which is around the 90th percentile. Lingering clouds, breezy
winds, and elevated moisture (PW values around 1.2"-1.4") will help
to regulate temperatures to only the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
Even though PW values will be around or just over the 75th
percentile (~1.32"), a subsidence inversion (cap) from ~900-850mb
and the lack of a sufficient lifting mechanism will keep rain
chances at nil.

Ridge axis pushes out to the east on Monday as an upper level low
moves over the Four Corners region. The approach of this upper low
begins to induce southwesterly flow aloft on late Monday afternoon.
Pair the more favorable path of PVA along with PW values remaining
in the 1.2"-1.4" range and we have persistent broken to overcast
cloud cover lingering throughout the day. The capping inversion also
remains in place on Monday, so rain chances remain close to zero
through the afternoon. Temperatures should still manage to top out
mainly in the low 80s on Monday. Going into the late afternoon, a
fairly robust LLJ (35-45 kts) begins to develop over the Brazos
Valley. Elevated southeasterly winds around 20 mph sustained with
higher gusts will continue into the overnight hours. Elevated winds
combined with a blanket of cloud cover is essentially the complete
opposite of the max radiational cooling equation. As a result, I
actually bumped temperatures up a little bit above guidance to
reflect lows mainly in the low 70s. It`s worth mentioning that the
previously mentioned LLJ develops in response to deepening surface
low pressure in the Central Plains. This parent low does attempt to
send a cold front our way, but it`ll still be well to our west by
the end of the short term period.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Temperatures will be on the warm side Tuesday through Friday with readings
looking just a couple degrees cooler heading on into Saturday. A series
of weak shortwaves/disturbances will be moving eastward across the state
during this time period and could end up giving some of our area possible
showers and/or thunderstorms. The first chance could come late Monday
night and Tuesday across our far northern counties, but the bulk of
activity is expected to stay to our north and west. The entire area
might end up with better chances at the end of the week and on into
the weekend with the help of a cold front that edges into the area and
stalls. This forecast package does not have area temperatures cooling
down until after this package...into Saturday night (lows back into
the 50s/60s) and Sunday (highs back down into the 70s)...with the possible
development aloft of a cooler west to northwest flow.

Before this possible cooldown, look for daily highs generally in a mid
to upper 80s range (might hit the 90 degree mark in a few spots on
Wednesday and/or Thursday) and lows mostly in the 70s.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Obs already beginning their annoying habit of teetering on the
MVFR/VFR edge. Plenty of SCT/BKNs around 030 that may have to be
amended based on how much/little cloud deck forms up at a given
terminal. Improvement to VFR later in the morning, while gusty
southeast winds return. Continue the cycle again tonight, with
MVFR CIGs higher confidence with another day of onshore flow
deepening moisture.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Elevated south to southeast winds will persist into the middle of the
upcoming week with winds and seas occasionally requiring caution or
advisory flags, especially at times on Monday and Tuesday. Lowering
onshore winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday night.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Due to the rainfall from the previous week and its subsequent
runoff, a couple of River Flood Warnings remain in effect as of
early Sunday morning. The Navasota River at Normangee (NGET2) has
already crested but will remain in minor flood stage through late
Monday night/early Tuesday morning. The Trinity River at Riverside
(RVRT2) remains on an upward trend and has been outperforming its
forecast as of recently leading to an earlier than anticipated
issuance of a River Flood Warning for this site. It is forecast to
remain in minor flood stage well into the work week. The River Flood
Warning for the Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) was cancelled
late Saturday night as the downward trend in action stage continues.
There are also multiple other gauges either in or forecast to crest
into action stage along the San Jacinto, Brazos, and San Bernard
Rivers.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  83  70  84 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  68  82  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  70  77  71  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$