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000
FXUS66 KHNX 141111
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
411 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Well below normal temperatures will prevail today before
rebounding next week.

2. A disturbance will continue over Central California today,
resulting in a chance for rain with snow above 4,000 feet in
the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains this morning then
rising to above 5,000 feet in the afternoon.

3. A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and
evening.

4. A significant warming trend is forecast next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation yesterday was fairly widespread across the area
with rainfall amounts generally ranging from 0.3 to 0.6 inches
across the San Joaquin Valley and up to one inch in the Sierra
Nevada below the snow line. The Upper low is currently spinning
just offshore of the SF Bay and will shift inland over central
California by this afternoon. Radar imagery shows precipitation
spreading in over the west side of the SJ Valley north of Kern
County at this time. Hi-res guidance shows this spreading east
and reaching the Sierra by sunrise. Snow levels will be around
4000 feet this morning but then rise to around 5000 feet this
afternoon. The probabilities for receiving another 2 inches of
snow across the Sierra range from 55 to 85 percent while the
probabilities for 4 inches are only 25 to 55 percent, highest
over the Tulare County portion of the Sierra. Probabilities for
one inch of snow over the Kern County mountains ranges from 50
to 80 percent while the probabilities for 2 inches ranges from
25 to 50 percent. Accumulating snow is expected to remain above
the Tejon Pass and Tehachapi Pass. Probabilities for 0.1 inches
of snow is only 4 percent at both Tehachapi Pass and Tejon Pass.
Rainfall across the SJ Valley is expected to generally be from
0.1 to 0.2 inches today. Probabilities for 0.25" are only up to
25 percent.

The upper low shifts east on Monday with dry weather returning
though clouds may linger for some areas and temperatures will
still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. An East Pacific ridge of
high pressure will build inland and provide dry weather through
the week along with warming temperatures. High temperatures are
forecast to be near normal on Tuesday then climb to around 4 to
7 degrees above normal on Wednesday. A little further warming
will put high temperatures as much as 10 degrees above normal on
Thursday. Little changes are then forecast through next weekend.
Here are the probabilities for a high temperature of 85 degrees
or higher for some locations across the San Joaquin Valley.

      Thu    Fri    Sat   Sun
Merced        11%    16%    11%     6%
Madera        16%    26%    11%    11%
Fresno        41%    51%    31%    31%
Lemoore       36%    46%    26%    26%
Hanford       31%    46%    26%    26%
Visalia       36%    51%    26%    26%
Porterville   16%    26%    16%    21%
Bakersfield   26%    31%    21%    31%
Edwards AFB   46%    31%    36%    36%
China Lake    91%    91%    81%    71%

&&

.AVIATION...
Rain will produce local MVFR conditions through 12Z Monday with
isolated IFR in thunderstorms between 19Z today and 03Z Monday.
Snowfall above 4,000 feet will produce areas of MVFR with local
mountain obscuring IFR conditions through 12Z Monday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected for the Central California interior
for at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DCH

weather.gov/hanford