Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
998 FNUS72 KILM 100935 FWSILM Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wilmington NC 535 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 10. If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374. .DISCUSSION... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Some storms could be strong or severe. The front will move off the coast early this evening. High pressure with near normal temps and lower daytime RH will dominate this weekend into early next week. Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable. Fog potential for tonight is None. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 84. Min humidity........65 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......3000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 14 to 18 mph. Max vent rate.......Fair (51199 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........4. Max ADI.............63. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........43 48 53 57 63 69 74 75 76 77 Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Temp............69 72 75 78 79 79 80 79 79 78 RH..............90 82 74 68 67 66 65 66 67 68 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W SW SW SW W W 20 FT wind spd..4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.1 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W SW W Transp wind spd.14 14 14 15 17 16 17 17 18 17 Stability.......A A B B B B B B B C LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............17 23 28 45 59 50 63 51 56 44 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 Vrate mph-ft/1K.13 18 22 35 47 40 51 40 44 36 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR PR FR PR FR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Min temperature.....Around 54. Max humidity........87 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the north 5 to 6 mph in the late evening and overnight, then becoming light early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 15 to 16 mph shifting to the north 14 to 17 mph early in the evening. Min vent rate.......Poor (6394 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........5. Min ADI.............6. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........75 74 72 56 41 26 27 28 29 24 20 15 Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Temp............75 73 70 68 67 65 63 61 60 59 58 57 RH..............73 77 84 84 85 87 87 87 86 86 85 86 20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N 20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 20 FT wind gust.12 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.W W N NW N N N N N N N N Transp wind spd.16 15 16 15 15 15 16 15 17 15 14 14 Stability.......C E E E E F F F F F F F LVORI...........3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 ADI.............32 10 11 10 10 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.25 15 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 7 6 7 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the morning and early afternoon, then becoming light early in the afternoon becoming northwest around 5 mph late in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......6500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 12 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 14 to 15 mph late in the afternoon. Max vent rate.......Good (97437 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........5. Max ADI.............118. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........13 8 4 3 3 3 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............56 57 62 68 72 74 RH..............87 85 68 54 46 42 20 ft wind......N 4 N 5 N 5 N 5 NW 4 W 5 20 ft wind gust.8 8 9 9 8 9 Mix hgt (ft)....600 1900 3300 4800 6000 6300 Transport wind..N 14 N 17 N 16 N 13 NW 12 NW 14 Stability.......F A A A A A LVORI...........5 4 1 1 1 1 ADI.............6 44 68 76 84 106 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.8 34 53 61 69 87 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...Morgan Requested by...Nathan Burmester Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413679.0/ILM .DELDT 05/10/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org