Text Products for FWS Issued by ILM

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000
FNUS72 KILM 161016
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Sandy Island 7...TNC
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
616 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions today, with
well above normal high temperatures. Sea breeze is forecasted to
move across location between 2 and 4 PM, with south winds gusting up
to 15 mph and slight increase in RH due to cooling and increased dew
points behind the sea breeze front. High pressure will lead to
unseasonably warm and quiet weather through late week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (67308 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............78.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   3   2   2   1   11  20  29  25  21  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  65  70  74  78  81  83  85  85  85  84
RH..............80  78  66  58  50  45  41  38  37  37  38
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   8   9   9   10  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.5 4.9 4.8 3.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  13  12  13  13  14  14  14
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........4   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............13  13  13  23  26  33  53  67  78  77  64
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6   6   9   18  20  26  43  57  67  67  53
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  FR
Sfc pres (in)...004 007 007 007 009 009 009 007 007 007 004

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4833 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............5.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........14  13  11  12  18  21  19  18  21  27  33  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............82  79  74  72  70  69  68  66  65  64  64  63
RH..............41  47  55  59  62  65  67  69  74  77  81  83
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.11  9   9   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  13  15  15  16  16  15  14  13  13  12  12
Stability.......B   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
ADI.............27  6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.21  6   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...004 004 006 006 006 010 010 010 011 011 011 011

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (39578 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............49.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........33     21     36     52     70     67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............63     65     73     80     80     79
RH..............86     85     67     58     53     56
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 4   SW 5   SW 6   S 7    S 8
20 ft wind gust.5      6      8      11     12     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    1300   2800   2900   2300
Transport wind..W 12   SW 13  SW 12  SW 14  SW 14  SW 17
Stability.......F      A      A      B      B      C
LVORI...........5      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.............5      12     20     49     49     45
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5      6      15     39     40     38
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.11  30.14  30.14  30.12  30.10  30.10

$$
Forecaster...Oliva
Requested by...Yeatman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411056.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Devin.yeatman@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
