285
FXUS63 KILX 090452
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight
  through Thursday as a low pressure area and a weak surface
  front push through the area.

- Cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with overnight
  lows dipping into the 40s Thursday night through Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Updated the forecast tonight to adjust the chances of showers and
thunderstorms as coverage is becoming more widely scattered at
late evening. Strong to severe storms raced ESE across southeast
IL affecting areas along and south of highway 50 from 730-9 pm
producing wind gusts of 50-60 mph with trees and power lines
blown down from Xenia east to highway 45 south of Flora. Some
heavy rain also reported in southeast IL with half to 1 inch of
rain in about an hour from I-70 south with locally higher amounts
from highway 50 south. Late evening surface map shows a 1003 mb
low pressure over south central Iowa with an occluded front
extending southward to another 1003 mb low pressure in central AR.
Main frontal boundary was over southern/se MO into southern parts
of IL, IN and Ohio with more widespread and stronger to even
severe convection south of this front in much more unstable air
mass south of I-64. More scattered thunderstorms, a few strong to
severe yet over central and northern Iowa. Low pressure moves from
south central Iowa into central IL by sunrise, keeping a chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms going over central and
northeast part of CWA overnight. Severe risk has mainly shifted
south of CWA rest of tonight. Lows overnight range from mid 50s nw
of the IL river, to the lower 60s in southeast IL.

07

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Showers and storms are still possible this evening across portions
of the CWA, however, the strongest storms should remain south of
the central IL. The only area that might see stronger to severe
storms will be in southeast IL...roughly south of I-70. North of
this line, some of the storms should be more isolated and could
actually be embedded at times in the stratiform rain. This could
pose a lightning hazard for outdoor activities. As the 500mb mid
level trough rotates through the CWA on Thursday night, there is a
small chance (around 20%) for showers to occur in the evening over
the northern portion of the CWA...roughly along and north of
I-72/Danville.

Temps will be lower tomorrow as cloud cover and northwest to
north winds bring slightly cooler air into the state.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Relatively dry weather is expected for the weekend, though a weak
trough will rotate through parts of the state with a chance of
light precip along and northeast of I-74 Friday night. The next
chance of precip will be the beginning of next week...Monday, and
continue into the middle of next week. The overall pattern for
this period will be messy with an upper level low pressure area
slowly moving across the US from the plains into the eastern US.

Temperatures will start off cooler for the beginning of the
weekend, but then warm back into the mid to upper 70s starting on
Sunday and continue through next week.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

1002 mb low pressure over northeast MO associated with an occluded
frontal boundary, will push eastward over central IL by dawn and
then push a surface trof southward through central IL during
Thursday afternoon. This will keep isolated showers around
overnight and into early Thu evening. Isolated thunderstorm
possible too but coverage too limited to mention in TAFs. VFR
conditions early overnight with 5-10k ft ceilings to see MVFR
ceilings develop by 08Z-09Z and possibly to IFR during Thu
morning as light fog could bring MVFR vsbys for a time. SE winds
4-8 kts to shift west to NW during Thu morning and then NE Thu
afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$