Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
083 FXUS63 KIWX 281715 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 115 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will diminish after daybreak over southwest Michigan. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected during the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. - Warm with highs in the 70s through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Vigorous warm advection in progress on nose of LLJ through the wrn OH valley leading to a disorganized area of showers and embedded thunder from cntrl IL newd through nrn IN. Expect this will continue to lift north into srn MI by daybreak and diminish. Thereafter turning warm and windy although cloud cover may be slow to shake this aftn and curb even warmer temps than are currently forecast. Potent shortwave over wrn NE will lift into ern SD tonight as cold frontal zone washes out ewd across the lakes on Mon. Little more than a band of decaying showers expected along this late tonight far west and across the remainder of the cwa Mon. Next nrn stream wave tracking through the nrn Rockies Mon-Tue turns left into Canada and has trended north which now looks to favor a mainly dry period Tue- early Thu before rain chances reappear ahead of a more substantial sys ejecting out of the cntrl Rockies Fri. Will make targeted cuts to overtly messy blended pops to account. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Dry conditions should hold across northern Indiana through much of the night with some renewed chances of rain across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan by early Monday morning. The primary aviation weather concern this afternoon is the continued strong winds. Diurnal mixing will continue to promote some southwest gusts to around 30 knots through the remainder of the afternoon, with these gusts tapering sharply toward 23Z. A modest gradient will persist overnight that will keep south winds up around 10 knots through the night. Large scale support for showers and thunderstorms through this evening will remain displaced well to the west across the Lower/Mid MS Rvr valley. As the large scale trough shifts east overnight and an upper jet streak lifts through downstream portion of this trough, would expect better forcing to shift far enough east to bring rain shower chances into NW Indiana late tonight. Confidence as far east as KSBN is somewhat lower and will hold with VCSH mention through Monday morning until better timing can be attained with what should be a weakening line of showers and embedded storms. Some brief MVFR cigs are possible NW Indiana after daybreak Monday, but primarily VFR conditions should hold. A narrow window of very marginal LLWS criteria is possible later tonight ahead of the cold front, but this looks quite marginal in nature and confidence remains low in meeting this criteria. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...T AVIATION...Marsili