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000
FXUS64 KJAN 210517 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

All is generally on track for the evening near term forecast
update. A minor mid level shortwave trough will progress eastward
along the frontal zone locked in over the Gulf Coast states, and
this will bring another round of convective rainfall overnight
with the heaviest axis south of the I-20 corridor. A limited
threat for localized flooding continues, and no significant
adjustments have been made to the forecast elements. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: Widespread showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will continue for a majority of the forecast area
through early Sunday afternoon. A Marginal risk for isolated severe
storms exists for this evening for areas along and south the Hwy-84
corridor and east of I-55 as better moisture, instability and wind
shear will exist creating a more favorable storm environment that
could see possible storm training this afternoon and evening.
Furthermore clearing in cloud cover has resulted in higher
temperatures than previously forecast in the Pine Belt leading to
excess heating that could aid in storm development. Thus, isolated
severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and heavy downpours will be possible through 8 PM this evening.
Additionally a limited flash flooding threat exists until Sunday
morning as storms continue to train across the same areas leading to
possible rainfall accumulation rates between 1-3 inches. This will
lead to possible localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying,
urban and poor drainage areas. Rainfall amounts will also result in
further river rises and additional river warnings. Over the coarse
of tomorrow a shortwave trough will push through our area, clearing
out rain chances as cooler drier air moves into our area./KP/

Sunday night through Friday: Colder than normal and dry to start the
period. In fact, Monday morning will be the coolest morning of the
forecast period.

Come Sunday evening an upper level shortwave trough will be swinging
through our region and helping to drop a >1024mb high into our CWA
from the northwest. This surge of cooler and drier air will send
temperatures into the low to mid 40s by sunrise Monday. A few spots
in the northeast may dip into the upper 30s. The surface high will
become centered over our CWA Monday while we maintain northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the shortwave trough. This will help maintain
cooler than normal temperatures for afternoon highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Normal highs run in the upper 70s to near 80F. The
surface high will continue shifting east Tuesday and Wednesday while
a weak cold front tries to drop into our CWA from the north. Wl see
a warming trend and a gradual increase in low level moisture through
Thursday but convection along the cold front looks to fizzle as it
approaches our CWA. Dry weather now looks to continue through
Thursday night but rain chances will increase from the northwest
Friday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. There are
timing differences on when the rain chances will begin as ridging
surface and aloft will be shifting east but trying to remain stout
across our CWA. This system is expected to result in rain chance
being confined to the northern half of the CWA through Friday night.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A mix of MVFR/IFR flight categories will continue to be observed
at area TAF sites overnight and through much of the morning hours,
as a result on continued low stratus and convection moving east
through the area. As the disturbance responsible for this activity
exits the region during the afternoon, flight categories will
respond from west to east as they return to VFR status areawide by
00Z today. Winds will remain northerly overnight between 5-10
knots, and will become breezy from the north between 10-15 knots
through late morning, with a few gusts around 20 knots possible.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  43  67  43 /  60   0   0   0
Meridian      63  42  68  42 /  80   0   0   0
Vicksburg     64  42  68  44 /  50   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   63  45  71  45 /  50   0   0   0
Natchez       64  43  68  43 /  50   0   0   0
Greenville    63  44  66  46 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     63  42  68  45 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19