Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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494 FXUS64 KJAN 301851 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Through Wednesday: Dry conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging and a surface high pressure axis extend along the East Coast. Though much of the low level moisture that resulted in fog this morning is expected to have eroded today, there may still be enough for patchy fog in some areas late tonight into tomorrow morning. Guidance has continued to trend away from the possibility of a convective complex over the Plains moving into our area on tomorrow, so rain chances have now been removed from the forecast. Considerable sun is expected with above average temps in the offing. Thursday through next Tuesday: As broad upper troughing expands eastward toward our region through the end of the week, increasing deep layer moisture and a series of upper shortwaves will result in a more active pattern with periodic chances for rain. The first such disturbance will approach Thursday, with a somewhat better chance for convection originating to our west to move into the area before likely weakening as it encounters stronger ridging further eastward. A similar situation may play out Thursday night into Friday. Heading into this weekend, the surface ridge axis will shift more southward, with the higher rain chances becoming oriented over the northern half of the area and drier conditions as you get closer to the Gulf Coast. Rain development may also become more diurnal in nature, with higher rain chances in the afternoons. The surface ridge is expected to build early next week, further limiting higher rain chances to north of the area with only isolated PoPs lingering across north MS and AR by Monday and Tuesday. Outside of disruption from clouds and rain, temperatures will continue a trend toward summerlike. Sufficient instability and deep shear may coincide at times for thunderstorms late this week into early next week to be strong to severe, but at this time there is not a specific favored time period for organized severe weather. Any potential will be largely driven by mesoscale features that are still too far out in time to resolve. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Earlier fog and low stratus deck has mixed and lifted with Scattered to broken cumulus deck lifting into the VFR range currently or likely by 19Z. There is a chance for some re- development of BR or FG around 12Z Wednesday, but confidence in MVFR or lower impacts to any TAF site was too low to mention at this time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 61 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 60 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 61 89 65 84 / 0 0 0 30 Hattiesburg 62 90 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 61 89 65 83 / 0 10 0 30 Greenville 63 87 66 84 / 0 0 0 30 Greenwood 63 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/NF