847
FXUS63 KLBF 161203
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
703 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry over the next 48 to 60 hours and very warm Friday.

- Chances increase for showers/thunderstorms after Saturday as a
more active pattern settles into the central CONUS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A fairly noisy H5 pattern was present across the CONUS and the
southern half of Canada tonight. Across the central CONUS
tonight, a shortwave trough of low pressure was oriented from
the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Further south, a
shortwave trough extended from southwestern Kansas into the
Texas Panhandle. Further west, a shortwave trough was located
over northern portions of the Gulf of California. Other features
of note in the west, were a strong area of high pressure,
roughly 700 miles west of San Fransisco and a closed low over
northwestern British Columbia and the northern Alaska Panhandle.
At the surface tonight, high pressure was anchored from eastern
Wyoming into western Nebraska. This was behind a cold front
which was oriented from central Minnesota into far southeastern
Nebraska and central Kansas. Across western and north central
Nebraska overnight, skies were mostly clear and 3 AM CT
temperatures ranged from 42 degrees at North Platte and Ogallala
to 49 degrees at Broken Bow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Weak surface high pressure will slide south and east of the
forecast area today. At the same time, a weak upper level
disturbance will track across North Dakota leading to the
development of surface low pressure over western North Dakota.
Winds will be light from the west today, north of the exiting
high and east of a weak surface trough, oriented from western
North Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle. For highs today, MET,
MAV and ECS forecast highs were in close agreement across the
forecast area, and blended all three of these members for
afternoon highs. This yielded highs in the upper 70s to around
80. Winds tonight will shift to the south and southwest,
remaining light. With abundant dry air in place, overnight lows
will bottom out around 50 degrees. On Friday, an upper level
disturbance will lift across Montana. Surface low pressure will
deepen over western South Dakota. A surface trough will trail
south of this feature into western Nebraska. The latest NAM12
soln has the trough axis roughly along the highway 83 corridor
Friday afternoon. East of the trough axis, winds will be
southerly with westerly and southwesterly winds west of the
axis. West of the trough, very warm air is forecast with H85
temps reaching 25 to 28C Friday afternoon. Like this afternoon,
there is good agreement between the MET, MAV and ECS guidance
for highs Friday. Utilizing a blend of the three, yielded highs
in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of the
Montana shortwave Friday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM
forecast did place some low pops in the northwestern forecast
area overnight Friday night. Looking at the latest QPF
probabilities Friday night, there was less than a 15 percent
chance of 0.01 inches of QPF in the northwestern forecast area.
After collaborating with UNR, went ahead and pulled out the
mention of pops Friday night. The shortwave trough will track
across North Dakota on Saturday forcing a frontal boundary
through the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Surface high pressure will build into the area Saturday
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures in the 70s. On
Saturday night, a broad trough of low pressure aloft will lift
into the intermountain west. A weak disturbance will lead to
shower and thunderstorm development over eastern Colorado into
Kansas. Precipitation chances will be limited across the
forecast area Saturday night due to a lack of low level
moisture. A developing surface trough and southerly winds, will
push moisture into the forecast area Sunday. With west
southwesterly flow aloft in place, thunderstorm chances will
increase Sunday across the area. Thunderstorm chances will
persist thorugh Tuesday night as persistent west southwesterly
flow aloft continues. This pattern will transition to more zonal
toward midweek, decreasing the threat for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 702 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours. Only FEW250
expected today through tonight. Winds will remain light
westerly today, then becoming light southerly tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg