973
FXUS64 KLCH 271117
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
617 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Breezy and cloudy conditions have continued into the overnight;
the deep fetch of onshore flow bringing about dewpoints in the
mid 60s to low 70s. We are sitting at 74/70 F here at the office,
and even with the breeze, it feels deplorable outdoors.

Expect much of the same today as we saw yesterday, only with
slightly warmer temperatures and higher winds. In fact, these
higher winds will be the primary talking point in the Day 1
timeframe. Pressure gradient between high over the northeast GoM
and a series of low pressures over the Plains states continues to
tighten and thus will yield increases in winds today and Sunday.
Sustained winds 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH are expected
today, primarily along and south of hwy 190. The Wind Advisory
for this region continues.

Latest guidance keeps winds along the coastline elevated above
Advisory criteria through the overnight, thus the Wind Advisory
was extended until at least Sunday morning. A further extension
into Sunday may be needed down the line.

The long fetch brought on by winds has caused a building of water
along the coastline and into channels. Expect further rises of
water during high tide cycles - about 7 to 10 AM currently. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued along the entire coastline
(including Orange/Calcasieu) for the potential of flooding waters
today and Sunday.

Rain chances return to northern zones late Sunday into Monday
with the eastern edge of upper shortwave trof moving over east
Texas. This feature lifts out before widespread convection can
move into the CWA.

A secondary trof moves directly over south Louisiana on Monday.
Strong tropical moisture flux combined with trof forcing will
bring about widespread showers and a few thunderstorms - isolated
severe storms possible. Moisture and forcing best align along and
north of I-10 where 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible throughout
the day Monday. A Marginal Risk of severe weather area-wide and
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the Lakes Area (Marginal
Risk elsewhere) have both been issued by the Storms Prediction
Center and Weather Prediction Center, respectively. While we
work to discern exact weather hazards Monday, continue to monitor
forecast trends to start the next work week.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Unsettled weather pattern continues into the middle of next week
with continued onshore flow creating warm/muggy days. Southern
stream jet will remain situated across the region with several
disturbances. Given the moisture/instability in place with the
disturbances, daily showers/storms seem increasingly likely each
afternoon. Highest POPs remain inland Tuesday/Wednesday, but likely
CWA wide will see at least isolated.

Daytime highs are nearly a copy and paste forecast all next week in
the middle 80s. Winds remain onshore from the S/SE and occasionally
breezy.

By late week, there could be a frontal bndry that approaches the
region, but confidence is low. If this were to occur, it could
provide another uptick in POPs.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This TAF issuance primarily tracks with winds and ceilings.
Tightening pressure gradient between high over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and strengthening low pressure in the Plains states
is resulting in elevated winds over the region. Expect southeast
winds to continue strengthening today, especially for coastal
terminals. Sustained winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 30 to 35
knots are expected throughout the afternoon. Winds may diminish
slightly after 00Z tonight with the setting sun, however elevated
winds with gusts are still expected through at least 12Z.

Ceilings across the region are currently hovering 1500 to 2500 ft.
As the sun rises, winds increase and mixing can begin, expect
ceilings to rise to around 3000 to 5000 ft this afternoon. Once
again as winds diminish after sundown (after 00Z), ceilings will
fall and should prevail between 1500 and 2000 ft.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A tight pressure gradient between a series of lows over the
Southern Plains and a surface high off the east coast will allow
for a prolonged period of strong and gusty southerly/onshore
winds. Sustained winds are likely to be near or above 20 knots
through the weekend with gusts over 30 knots. This, along with
building seas to as high as 10 feet offshore, will bring about a
long duration Small Craft Advisory conditions through the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms return over coastal waters late Sunday
with elevated rain chances continuing into late Tuesday. The
onshore winds will decrease early next week as the high weakens
off the east coast and no deep surface lows are expected to form
over the Southern Plains.

Long fetch combined with high tide will likely bring about high
water and coastal flooding conditions along the coastlines and in
the channels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  68  86  67 /  10   0  20  40
LCH  84  72  85  71 /  10   0  20  30
LFT  87  71  87  73 /   0   0  10  20
BPT  84  72  83  71 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ044-045-055-073-074-
     141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...11