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000
FXUS64 KLUB 211141
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Northwest flow aloft will help keep temperatures 15-20 degrees below
normal (upper 50s to low 60s) today as surface high pressure
builds over the northern Rolling Plains this afternoon helping to
sweep cloud cover east to west late in the day. Before then, low
clouds will linger through the morning hours with light and
variable surface winds as we begin to dry out. Overnight lows into
early Monday morning will remain 5-10 degrees below normal (mid
30s to low 40s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Upper-level ridging will expand into the Midwest on Monday but
quickly shift east by Monday evening as a system moves into the
Northern Plains. This system will help to strengthen a lee surface
low in eastern Colorado on Monday which will bring a return of
southwesterly winds to our area. These downsloping winds combined
with increasing heights aloft will help to boost temperatures
back into the 70s. Forecast guidance has come into better
agreement regarding the cold front that is expected to move
through the region on Tuesday afternoon. As expected the later
timing of the front is now favored which will allow temperatures
to warm into the 80s with the warmest temperatures expected across
the southern half of the area. Compressional warming ahead of the
front may lead to even warmer temperatures than currently
forecasted. Forecast soundings indicate around 1500 J/Kg of
surface based CAPE developing the problem being that CIN of around
100 J/Kg is also expected. With lack of better upper-level
support it remains unlikely that this cap will be overcome
although it bears watching as the depth of the front itself may be
sufficient for isolated convective development.

Upper-level ridging will build into the Plains on Wednesday but with
the stalled cold front just south of the area temperatures will only
warm into the upper 70s. This front should retreat to the northeast
through the day as southwest flow increases. Isentropic ascent may
lead to additional shower and thunderstorm development primarily
across the Rolling Plains. Ensemble clustering continues to show a
large spread in both timing and strength of an upper-level system
moving over southern California Wednesday night. Depending on the
trajectory of this system we could have the potential for dryline
convection over our eastern areas on Thursday otherwise warmer,
drier, and windier conditions would be the most likely scenario. An
additional system is expected to dive south across California late
Friday night which could lead to an active weekend for us. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Low ceilings continue to hang around at KLBB and KPVW. KLBB is
expected to remain MVFR for the remainder of the morning before
ceilings begin to lift and dissipate this afternoon. There is
approximately a 20% chance that KPVW may see MVFR ceilings this
morning as well. Winds will remain light through the day today as
surface high pressure builds into the region. This will also force
clouds to dissipate from northeast to southwest through the day
with VFR conditions expected at all sites this afternoon through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58