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000
FXUS64 KLZK 160703
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
203 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Some spotty SHRA/isolated TSRA is lifting NE into and across
portions of the CWA early this Tue morning...though most areas are
remaining generally dry. Winds have initially remained relatively
weak so far tonight...but some higher elevations are starting to see
winds pick up this morning. This looks to be the trend throughout
the day...with SRLY winds increasing into the afternoon hrs.
Currently...looks like winds will remain just below Wind Adv
criteria...but there could be a couple spots that see winds gust
over 40 mph at times.

Moisture levels will continue to increase today...with increased
cloud cover expected to continue. These clouds will tend to keep
temps from warming too far...but expect to see temps in the 70s for
most areas. Where some clouds break up for a period of time...temps
could warm into the 80s as a result.

Convection looks to develop for portions of the area by midday into
the afternoon hrs as the dryline to the west of AR pushes east
before stalling/retreating this evening. Most of the upper level
energy will also be passing north of AR...and with SFC heating
limited by cloud cover...the instability and forcing seems a bit
lacking. However...deep layer SHR and 0-3km SRH look impressive
enough to see some SVR Wx potential. The caveat will be will there
be enough forcing to overcome mid-level warm/dry air to for
convection to be sustained. If storms develop...they will have the
capability to become strong/SVR...with the best potential for seeing
any SVR storms across the NRN half/two-thirds of AR this afternoon
in closer proximity to the upper forcing. All SVR hazards will be
possible with the strongest storms. Overall QPF looks limited given
the lack of precip coverage...but any storm could bring brief heavy
rain. The lack of precip coverage is also why POPs have been limited
to below NBM to likely category.

The precip potential will shift east of the area for tonight into
Wed...but the frontal boundary will remain W/NW of AR. Temps will
remain warm for Wed as a result...with temps in the 80s for most
areas. Mainly dry conditions will be seen through the rest of the
short term period...but POPs look to increase starting early in the
long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

To begin the period, zonal flow aloft will bring an unsettled
weather pattern across the state for much of the long term period.
By Thursday morning a warm front will lift just north of the state
bringing the chance for showers and storms within the warm sector.
By Friday, a cold front is expected to move across the state
stalling just to the south of the CWA. This stalled front will keep
PoPs elevated in the forecast through the weekend. By Monday...high
pressure begins to move back into the state...bringing back those
calm and dry conditions.

While there is still some model uncertainty regarding exact details
associated with these systems...it does appear unsettled weather is
expected through much of the long term. Changes to the forecast are
possible this far out so continue to check back in for additional
updates.

Temperatures are expected to be warmest on Thursday with highs in
the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s. By
Friday and the weekend, high temperatures are expected to drop into
the upper 50s to lower 70s with overnight lows in the lower 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  66  85  64 /  70  60  10  10
Camden AR         81  67  83  65 /  50  40   0  10
Harrison AR       75  60  85  62 /  50   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    75  65  83  64 /  70  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  80  67  85  67 /  60  60  10  10
Monticello AR     82  68  82  66 /  30  40  10  10
Mount Ida AR      74  65  83  64 /  70  30  10  10
Mountain Home AR  74  63  86  62 /  70  10   0  10
Newport AR        79  67  84  65 /  60  70  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     81  67  83  66 /  50  50  10  10
Russellville AR   76  65  85  65 /  60  20   0  10
Searcy AR         78  66  84  65 /  60  70  10  10
Stuttgart AR      80  67  83  67 /  50  60  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....73