698
ACUS11 KWNS 061901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061900
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...

Valid 061900Z - 062100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to show signs of intensification
across western SD. As such, the severe threat across western
portions of WW 183 continues.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a trio of discrete cells have
become better organized along a cold front as it shifts
east/northeast. This intensification has been slow, but MRMS
vertically integrated ice and MESH metrics show these cells
approaching severe limits. Additionally, organized mesocyclones have
been noted in velocity data with some of these cells. Although the
effective warm sector remains very narrow immediately ahead of these
cells, continued profile cooling via persistent/strong synoptic
ascent coupled with gradual low-level warming is supporting SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear vectors and low-level
SRH continues to favor discrete to semi-discrete storm modes with
the potential for large hail and at least a low-end tornado threat -
especially where temperatures have warmed into the low 70s, allowing
for better low-level buoyancy to support stronger lifting/stretching
of environmental SRH and ambient vorticity along the boundary. Given
the very limited extent of the warm sector, the severe threat for
the next 1-2 hours should be relatively confined to areas downstream
of ongoing/developing convection.

..Moore.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   43270156 43800185 44460252 44730320 44880397 45120463
            45450479 45900438 46010400 46020325 45980226 45760154
            45200111 44560082 43950082 43540093 43280103 43220140
            43270156