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000
FXUS66 KMFR 160551
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1050 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

16/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region, though
terrain obscurations remain present, especially west of the
Cascades. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period and current cloud cover will likely linger into the overnight
hours, but should dissipate late tonight into early Tuesday morning
as drier air moves into the region. The exception will be in
Roseburg where marine stratus will move there towards 10z, before
breaking up around 18z. -Petrucelli

&&


.DISCUSSION...It will be dry for the rest of the night and any
mention of pops have been removed. Satellite image shows low
clouds banked up along the west facing slopes of the Cascades,
banked up along the Umpqua Divide and in the Coquille Basin.
Elsewhere it`s clear and this will allow temperatures to drop
quicker compared to recent nights. Other than removing pops from
the forecast, everything else is on track. For details on the rest
of the forecast period, please see the previous discussion below.
-Petrucelli


&&


.MARINE...Updated 830 PM Monday, April 15, 2024...A thermal trough
pattern will bring strong gusty north winds to the waters through
much of the week. Steep to very steep wind driven seas are expected
south of Cape Blanco through Tuesday morning. The thermal trough
peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday and this is when we expect
north winds to reach gale force during the afternoons and evenings
from Gold Beach southward. Additionally, conditions hazardous to
small craft are expected to expand north of Cape Blanco resulting in
steep to very steep wind driven seas across all areas, with the
steepest seas expected south of Port Orford. Hazards have been
updated this evening to reflect this change in forecast, with a
Hazardous Seas Warning now in effect through Tuesday afternoon and a
Gale Warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday
morning.

The thermal trough weakens Thursday into Friday, and this is when
conditions are expected to improve, though steep seas are likely to
linger through the end of the week. /BR-y


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 509 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

Updated AVIATION Discussion...

AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region,
though terrain obscurations remain present, especially west of the
Cascades. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period and current cloud cover will likely linger into the overnight
hours, but should dissipate late tonight into early Tuesday morning
as drier air moves into the region. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

SHORT TERM...A weak front is moving inland to the north and has
resulted in light rain showers over parts of Coos and Douglas
County today. Showers are forecast to taper off this evening.
Low to mid clouds will linger overnight into Tuesday morning,
especially west of the Cascades. These clouds will limit frost
potential tonight. Models support zonal flow to weak ridging over
the area tonight through mid week with dry weather, cool to cold
overnight temperatures and mild to warm daytime highs.

There is a potential for freezing temperatures in some west side
valleys Tuesday night and Wednesday, including the Rogue,
Applegate and Illinois valleys as well as into Siskiyou County.
The coldest night is expected to be Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning with frost likely in many valleys west of the Cascades and
a moderate chance (30-50%) of freezing temperatures in the
Applegate and Illinois Valleys. Portions of the Rogue Valley will
also see a chance (20-25%) for freezing temperatures. This will
bring a potential for agricultural impacts. So a freeze watch has
been issued for parts of Josephine and Jackson counties.
Additional cold temperatures are possible Wednesday night and
Thursday morning as cool air remains in place and there are lower
humidities and clear skies.

LONG TERM...Thursday (04/18) through Monday (04/22)...The
extended period starts as high pressure peaks across the PNW region,
and the thermal trough gets displaced inland. Temperatures on Friday
will peak in the mid-to-upper 70s west of the Cascades and upper 60s
east of the Cascades. These temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. However, while the heat risk is very low, the sun will
be hot. Don`t be like me and venture into the mountains, to the
lakeshore, or trudge to work without sunscreen and sun-protective
clothing.

Winds will setup in a typical summer-time diurnal pattern through
Friday, with stronger up valley flows in the afternoon. Meanwhile at
night winds will be light to nearly calm. Overnight temperatures
will remain around freezing east of the Cascades, but to the west,
temperatures will creep warmer into the 40s.

While this region experiences some summer-like warmth, a broad low
pressure system will be developing in the Gulf of Alaska. After a
few frosty mornings and warm days, this area of low pressure will
move across the Canadian Rockies. This will be enough to cause a
pattern change here, too, and cool the region back closer to normal
temperatures. Across the Cascades, Douglas County, and coast this
pattern is expected to result in a low chance (10-30%), low
precipitation ( less than 0.1") rain event.

-Miles

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Monday, April 15, 2024...A thermal trough
is strengthening today. This pattern will bring another round of
gusty north winds, along with steep to very steep seas, especially
south of Cape Blanco.

The thermal trough is expected to peak Tuesday evening into
Wednesday when strong gusty winds are expected to expand north of
Cape Blanco. There is uncertainty as to how far north this expansion
will occur. A Small Craft Advisory that begins this afternoon will
continue through Thursday morning as steep to very steep seas are
possible. Gusty north winds will persist into Thursday, with
conditions expected to improve toward the end of the week.
/Smith/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for ORZ024-026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5
     AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$