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000
FXUS64 KMOB 151139
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Patches to areas of fog are anticipated again late tonight into
Tuesday morning, with IFR to potentially VLIFR conditions. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail. Calm or light and variable
winds this early this morning become southerly near 10 knots
around mid-morning. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will prevail across the
region through Tuesday, keeping our area rain-free and under
mostly clear skies. Surface high pressure across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico will bring a light southerly wind flow. With
increasing boundary-layer moisture, there is a concern will be the
potential for patchy to areas of fog early this morning and again
late tonight. Guidance seems to be relatively confident in the
potential across areas north of I-10, and Dense Fog Advisories
will likely be needed. High temperatures ranging from 80 to 85
degrees are expected inland areas both days, or about 2 to 7
degrees above normal. The cool Gulf waters will keep the highs
along the coast in the 75 to 80 degree range. Lows tonight will be
4 to 9 degrees above normal, ranging from 57 to 62 degrees inland
areas, and from 62 to 65 degrees along the coastal sections. A
LOW risk of rip currents will continue through the period. /22
(NWS LIX-FRYE)

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Quiet weather continues during the short and long term period
Tuesday night through Sunday. Upper ridging dominates the forecast
Tuesday night before we shift to more westerly flow aloft as a
trough ejects north of the region Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night will feature a weak shortwave embedded within
the subtropical jet pushing across the area. Guidance has
generally down trended on the potential for any rain or storms
over the interior counties, but still can’t rule out a stray
shower or storm late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday
night. Zonal flow becomes established by Thursday night into
Saturday with a couple non-impactful weak perturbations in the
flow moving across the area. Late Saturday into Sunday a slightly
more pronounced upper trough will move across the gulf coast
states and may provide for some more unsettled weather in the form
of increased rain chances and perhaps an isolated storm or two
prior to the approach of a cold front late Saturday night into
Sunday. Warm weather remains established through the forecast
period across the region. High temperatures each day will likely
rise into the lower to middle 80`s, with Thursday through Saturday
likely being the hottest days with spots seeing middle to perhaps
even upper 80`s. With the expectation for increased convective
coverage on Sunday, would expect temperatures to be notably cooler
in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s for most locations, warmest
nearer the coast. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to
middle 60`s for Tuesday through Saturday nights. A Moderate risk
for rip currents will return Tuesday, lasting through the rest of
the week. MM/25 (NWS LIX-FRYE)

MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through
Friday before winds become light offshore this weekend. /22 (NWS
LIX-FRYE)

Fire Weather...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday. Afternoon relative
humidity values remain above critical levels today and Tuesday.
Transport winds will be mostly southerly today and southerly to
southeasterly on Tuesday. Dispersion index values will be fair to
good today and generally good to good on Tuesday. Fog potential
and other remarks…Patchy to areas of dense fog remain expected
through daybreak this morning, perhaps becoming locally dense.
Patchy fog is once again expected tonight. MM/25 (NWS LIX-FRYE)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  62  80  65  80  65  84  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   76  64  77  65  77  67  81  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      75  63  76  66  77  68  79  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   84  56  83  59  83  63  87  62 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10   0
Waynesboro  84  59  83  63  83  65  87  63 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10  10
Camden      83  58  82  61  82  63  85  63 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10  10
Crestview   83  55  83  58  82  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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