508
FXUS64 KMOB 300005
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
705 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of showers with mainly light rain continues to slowly move
east across the area this evening. Lighter rainfall will affect
JKA and PNS as the convective line weakens between 00z and 06z as
it moves into Baldwin County. VFR conditions develop by Tuesday
afternoon. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A vigorous shortwave trough axis will slide through the forecast
area tonight. In advance of this trough axis, a band of showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms currently moving through the
western portion of the CWA will continue to advance eastward
across the remainder of Lower Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle tonight into tomorrow morning. At this time, any
rainfall should remain on the lighter side as the convective line
continues to weaken. Have largely stuck with NBM PoP values
resulting in chance to likely PoP over the area tonight.
Temperatures will remain mild and overall temperature spread is
low between the various model solutions. Given this have stuck
with NBM deterministic output which puts lows in the low to mid
60s for tonight.

Tomorrow will see the shortwave trough axis shift to the east, and
a broad region of increased negative vorticity advection and upper
deep layer subsidence will overspread the forecast area. Skies
will clear through the day, and rain chances will come to an end
by the mid- afternoon hours. Temperature spread is once again
small tomorrow between the various ensemble members, and have
stuck with NBM deterministic values. This places highs back into
the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Deep layer ridging will be in place through the entire short term
period, and this will keep conditions largely clear and dry.
Temperatures will be quite warm beneath this ridge axis due to
strong subsidence throughout the atmospheric column. Highs will be
above average and will range from the mid to upper 80s, and
potentially even the lower 90s, for both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. With a dry airmass in place, strong radiational cooling
is expected each night, and lows will dip into the low to mid 60s
each night. Some atmospheric decoupling could occur each night,
and will need to monitor for fog development.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The deep layer ridge will continue to dominate the area through
the upcoming weekend. A series of fast moving and weak shortwave
features will ride around the ridge axis, and this could help to
spark off some isolated convective activity each afternoon over
more inland portions of the CWA, but areas near the coast can
expect to see continued dry conditions as a strong mid-level
cap remains in place. Temperatures will remain warmer than average
with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s each day and lows
will continue to cool into the low to mid 60s each night as clear
skies and low humidity values support strong radiational cooling.

MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Winds will remain elevated tonight in advance of an approaching
front with winds of 10 to 20 knots expected. After the weak front
slips through the area tomorrow morning, winds will shift to the
west and southwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Seas will also
begin to subside from 3 to 5 feet to 1 to 3 feet by tomorrow
afternoon. Conditions will remain very benign from tomorrow
afternoon through the end of the week as high pressure dominates
the northern Gulf. Winds will shift to an onshore component at 5
to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected from Wednesday
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  85  63  87  63  86  65  83 /  80  30   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   69  82  66  84  65  84  66  83 /  60  50   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      69  79  68  82  67  83  69  82 /  30  50   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   63  83  60  87  59  90  61  88 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  61  84  59  88  60  90  62  84 /  80  10   0  10   0  10   0  20
Camden      62  82  59  85  59  88  62  86 /  80  40   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   64  84  60  89  59  90  61  88 /  40  60   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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