Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
073
FNUS74 KMOB 031129
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for Chick 441...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast for today and Saturday, with rain chances at the burn
site around 30 percent each day. Minimum relative humidity
values will remain well above critical thresholds. Transport
winds for both today and Saturday will generally be out of the
south. Max wind gusts will be around 10-15 mph for both afternoons.
Afternoon dispersions will be generally good to good for both
days (indices around 55-65).
Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog development is possible
tonight over the burn site.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in
the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...762-1554 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 5 meters/second.
Dispersion index....22 increasing to 58.
LVORI...............2.
Stability class.....3.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60 62 64 66 67 68 69 73
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............78 81 85 86 86 86 86 84
RH..............76 67 55 51 51 50 50 53
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7
20 FT wind gust.7 8 10 12 13 12 12 10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.6 4.6
Mix hgt (km)....0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S SSW SSW SSW SSW
Transp wind spd.7 9 10 12 12 10 12 12
Trans wind dir..S S S S SSW SSW SSW SSW
Trans spd (m/s).3 4 4 5 5 4 5 5
Dispersion idx..22 35 48 57 57 58 52 52
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the evening, then slight chance of
showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1402 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 2 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....52 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76 80 77 73 70 65 61 56 55 54 53 54
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............82 79 76 74 72 70 69 69 67 67 67 66
RH..............58 64 71 76 81 87 90 90 97 97 97 100
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S SSW S
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.SSW SSW SSW SW SW WSW SW S SSW S S S
Transp wind spd.13 10 8 8 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 6
Trans wind dir..SSW SSW SSW SW SW WSW SW S SSW S S S
Trans spd (m/s).6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3
Dispersion idx..52 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1402 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 2 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 63 early in the afternoon,
then decreasing to 50 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55 56 53 51 49 47 45 43 43 42 42 42
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............66 67 69 75 80 84 85 88 89 89 88 86
RH..............100 97 93 79 69 59 55 48 47 47 48 51
20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE S S S S S S SSW SSW SSW
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.6
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.SE SSE SSE S S S SSW SSW SSW SSW S S
Transp wind spd.5 5 6 6 8 10 12 12 14 13 9 8
Trans wind dir..SE SSE SSE S S S SSW SSW SSW SSW S S
Trans spd (m/s).2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 4
Dispersion idx..2 5 7 12 21 36 51 63 62 56 50 50
LVORI...........9 9 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...96
Requested by...Rodney Landrum
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413057.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Rodney.landrum@usda.gov