Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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805 AWUS01 KWNH 090155 FFGMPD KYZ000-INZ000-090600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0245 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 954 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Southern IND...Northwest KY... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 090155Z - 090600Z SUMMARY...Quick moving MCS with intense sub-hourly 1-2" totals with trailing line that may orient favorably for training while crossing wet soils. Spots of 1-3" totals may result in possible localized flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um denotes a compact cluster of severe thunderstorms with well defined bow crossing out of S IL into SW IND. An attendant flanking line also continues to generate sufficient surface moisture convergence to develop new rapidly cooling tops below -60C. Cell motions are very rapid to the east, but are generating along the western interface of a surface ridge and south of a secondary northern stream warm front that appears to exist from HUF to BMG to CVG. A pool of modest remaining instability (1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) exists in the proximity to the frontal zone though central KY has been worked over pretty well. Solid moisture flux of 1.75" with 30-35kts of inflow at mid-levels ,should support intense rates up to 2"/hr. However, duration is likely to be the issue given forward speed. In addition, the concern is area has seen recent heavy rainfall and an additional 1-2" in sub-hourly will not infiltrate well and run off quickly, especially further west. However, current orientation of the trailing flanking line is fairly parallel to deeper layer steering WSW flow and may allow for a streak of 1-3" totals through similarly saturated grounds. This is a narrow window of time before the remaining instability is exhausted, but the risk for a couple instances of low-end flash flooding will remain possible for the next few hours. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...PAH... ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39058642 39018508 38748434 37988421 37458456 37198515 37248603 37638747 38058788 38938726