075
FXUS63 KMPX 042002
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies gradually clearing from west to east tonight.

- Strong 40 to 50 mph wind gusts possible, especially across
  Western MN Monday afternoon and overnight.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

This afternoon through the rest of this weekend... Cloud cover
continues to erode from west to east this afternoon. Surface
observations clearly defining a boundary between which sites have
seen more sunshine (temps near 60, western MN) as compared to
everywhere else in the upper 40s to low 50s (all other sites). By
this evening into tonight, sky coverage will transition from partly
cloudy to mostly clear. The lack of cloud coverage tonight will
open the door for a few upper 30s to sneak in mainly north and
east of the I-94 corridor. Sunday continues to look drier and
warmer. Surface flow will shift from northwesterly to southerly
allowing for Sunday`s forecasted highs at least 5-7 degrees
warmer than where they are today. Other than a few clouds
possible in the afternoon, should be a good day to get out and
enjoy the weather.

Monday and Tuesday...By Monday, a low deepens over the western CONUS
with the eastern periphery of the trough beginning to dig over the
central plains, surface low pressure develops over the Rockies and
sweeps NNE into the Dakotas. As this occurs, the low will
strengthen and increase the pressure gradient between the
Dakotas and MN. Winds are expected to become quite gusty between
40-50 mph starting Monday afternoon into early Tuesday
especially across western MN. Therefore, wind headline issuance
is becoming likely tomorrow. As for precip, enough forcing looks
to be present to produce more widespread rain and potentially
some thunder. Best thunderstorm chances look to stick to IA and
farther south but will depend on how far north the warm front
can advance into MN. The focus for best precip chances begin in
western MN after dusk Monday and then spreading eastward to the
entire region overnight, then lingering through Tuesday mainly
for those east of the I-35 corridor. Ensemble guidance
maintaining their confidence amongst their memberships for storm
total QPF ranging between 0.50 to 1.00" of rain by Tuesday
night. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will reach near 70
each day.

For the latter half of the week...the upper-level trough over the
northern plains will be reluctant to depart. A couple of weak
shortwaves are possible to develop off of the broader circulation
aloft during this period. Thus more chances of precip on
Wednesday and Thursday. Forcing does not look as robust on
Wednesday as the preceding system but still enough where
scattered rainfall could develop. Thursday`s shortwave looks a
tad more organized and provides better coverage of rain however
disagreement between GFS/EC/GEM ensemble tracks macks me more
reluctant to sway from NBM probabilities. So maintaining
mentions of 30-40 PoPs in forecast grids for now. Temperatures
will be noticeably cooler on Thursday with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s. By Friday, a deepening ridge over the western
CONUS will finally be able to nudge this stubborn northern
plains trough eastward and marking the "caboose" of this nearly
7-10-day wave train. Precip chances will dwindle with high
pressure returning and temps at or just below normal for this
time of year (mid 60s). Looking into the forecast for the first
half of the month, h85 temp and precip anomalies match up well
with current CPC outlooks as temps remain near normal and under
drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Main swath of rain has shifted off to the east, thus outside of
potentially a brief lingering sprinkle/shower in far eastern MN
into western WI, no additional precipitation is expected this
duration. Visible satellite imagery shows the stratus deck
continuing to slide eastward, with it still holding east of a
line from Princeton to Mankato, while points west are breaking
out with fair wx cumulus clouds. One by one, TAF sites will have
their ceilings erode away to VFR cumulus this afternoon,
followed by clearing overnight through Sunday. Breezy NW winds
at initialization will diminish this evening then go
light/variable overnight through daybreak and into late Sunday
morning. For much of central-eastern MN into western WI, a
period of pre-dawn MVFR-worthy ground fog is looking likely at
the TAF sites early Sunday morning but this should be of limited
impact.

KMSP...Low/MVFR stratus looks to hold on through about 20z, with
VFR conditions thereafter. Skies will clear out this evening
through Sunday morning while winds continue to diminish. There
is a decent chance of moisture trapped under the nightly
inversion being manifested as ground fog Sunday morning so have
included mention of it in this TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SE 20G35 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind 10-15kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC
CLIMATE...CCS