932
FXUS66 KMTR 032345
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
445 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

...New MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

Cold front on track to bring widespread rain, cooler temperatures,
and gusty winds this weekend. Dry weather returns Sunday with a
gradual warming trend through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

Mostly clear skies over the region today ahead of the next cold
front. Ample cloud cover associated with the front now moving into
the northern portions of the state will continue to move southward
through tonight. Areas of light rainfall are expected to begin
early Saturday morning along favored west-facing upslope areas
in the coastal ranges as moist low-level westerly flow increases
ahead of the front. Much of the surface front should be through
the Bay Area by mid-morning, and late morning for areas further
south along the Central Coast. Aided by a robust 150 kt NW-SE
oriented jet on the back side of the low, this will be a rather
quick-moving front with little-to-no chance of stalling. However,
this jet and continued support of an enhanced northwesterly Eastern
Pacific jet along the West Coast will support gusty northwest
winds to 25-35 mph along coastal areas and NW-SE oriented valleys
through the weekend. Rainfall amounts Saturday will be in the ball
park of 0.4-0.75" for most locations, with a few seeing upwards of
1-1.25" in the coastal ranges of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz
Mtns.

Behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening, there is a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across the area.
Scattered showers will persist into Saturday evening, but
conditions appear favorable for a few locally strong updrafts that
would support a rumble of thunder or two, as well as small hail.
Deep convection would not be supported, given limited cooling
aloft, promoting a more stable environment aloft. Thus, any storms
that do develop would be relatively short-lived. Really nothing
out of the ordinary for us during these typical cold core systems,
just more resemblant of a system we`d see in January rather than
May.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday looks to be on the drier side with the low departing.
Temperatures the next few days will be on the cool side with
afternoon high temps dropping by as much as 18 degrees for inland
locations. Low temps Sunday morning will be in the 40s for most,
with a few pockets of upper 30s for inland and high elevation
areas. Otherwise, a warm up is on tap for the rest of next week as
the pattern becomes more ridge-dominant. By Wednesday, expect
afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80, and the mid-to-upper 60s
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR lasts until the early to mid evening for most terminals before
IFR/LIFR level clouds move inland. Winds stay W/NW and remain
gusty through the evening. As stratus approaches in the evening,
winds become light to moderate, and slowly turn to become more
S/SW ahead of the approaching low pressure system. By the mid
morning hours of Saturday, most terminals will see winds increase
once more to become breezy and gusty out of the SW, and rain
begins, lowering visibilities at terminals. Cloud decks are
expected to improve to become IFR/MVFR as the rain approaches.
Rain continues into Saturday afternoon before dissipating, with
winds turning to become N/NW and breezy.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions last through the evening, with
strong wings gusting to around 35 knots expected. Stratus makes
moves inland in the late evening, bringing IFR conditions as winds
reduce. Winds reduce further into the night and turn
southwesterly. These winds become gusty as the rain arrives early
Saturday morning with MVFR CIGs and slight reductions in
visibilty.Winds turn to become W/NW in the later morning, but
rain lasts through the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR CIGs push inland in the early
evening. IFR/LIFR CIGs last through the majority of the overnight
hours with lighter winds. As the rain band arrives, expect CIGs
lift to become IFR/MVFR late Saturday morning. Gusty westerly
winds build along the rain band.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

Breezy to gusty northwest winds continue with gale force gusts
possible over the southernmost zones. This evening, a low pressure
system and associated cold front will arrive from the north,
bringing rain and moderate to fresh breezes across the waters.
Winds will turn briefly southwesterly ahead of the system early
Saturday morning, but turn to become northwesterly once more in
the late part of Saturday morning. Rain ceases late in the day
Saturday, and winds ease to become moderate into the new workweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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