Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 252316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
616 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of snow and 35-45 mph wind gusts will lead to
  dangerous travel in portions of Knox and Antelope counties
  into Tuesday morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in
  effect.

- The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include a
  larger portion of eastern Nebraska and a small part of west-
  central Iowa for a mixture of snow and freezing rain overnight
  into Tuesday morning.

- Dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday with
  temperatures trending back up into the 50s and 60s by
  Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Late this afternoon into Tuesday:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicts a significant
midlevel trough over the central and southern Plains with an
embedded low situated over central KS. That low is forecast to
track through southeast NE tonight before weakening into an
opening wave. In the low levels, an associated cold front was
progressing through far southeast NE and southwest IA as of 2 PM
with a loosely organized band of showers and thunderstorms
ongoing along and immediately behind the surface front over
southwest IA. The strongest storms within that regime will be
capable of small hail through 4 or 5 PM.

Outside of the convection in southwest IA, any meaningful
precipitation has either shifted to the north of the region, or is
located across western KS in the vicinity of the above-
mentioned midlevel low. As the low continues northeast this
evening into tonight, expect the ongoing snow over KS to also
lift north into central and portions of eastern NE. It still
appears that there could be a mix of freezing rain and/or sleet
on the eastern edge of the snow, and as such, the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include more of eastern NE and a
small part of west-central IA for the potential for slippery
road conditions tonight through the Tuesday morning commute.

Snow and ice accumulations overnight remain somewhat uncertain
due to the anticipated showery nature of the precipitation. In
general, an additional 1 to 3" of snow appears likely near the
SD border with amounts decreasing with southeastward extent
across the area. Ice accumulations will range from a trace to
upwards of 0.05". Winds will remain strong with gusts of 35-45
mph with the greatest potential for blowing snow and resultant
reduced visibilities expected near the SD border where more snow
has fallen.

Light snow is expected to taper off from west to east Tuesday
morning with highs ranging from the mid to upper 20s over
northeast NE to upper 30s to around 40 across portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA.

Wednesday through Sunday:

The 12z global models are in good agreement in suggesting that
the current troughing over the central part of the nation will
be gradually replaced by a low-amplitude ridge, which will build
into the Great Plains later this week. That midlevel pattern
evolution will lead to considerable low-level warming across the
mid-MO Valley, especially from Thursday into Friday. By Friday,
the models suggest that a front will move south through the
region with slightly cooler conditions expected by Saturday. The
forecast will indicate a chance of rain Sunday; however there`s
considerable model variability in the large-scale pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Widespread MVFR and IFR stratus continue to persist at all TAF
sites across the region. MVFR ceilings are currently observed at
KOFK, but there is some uncertainty as to whether these will
drop to IFR levels this evening. Have included in TAFs IFR
ceilings when short term guidance shows strongest signal for
snow redevelopment. While short term guidance suggests some
redevelopment of rain/snow showers across the region after 03Z,
precipitation coverage across east-central and southeast
Nebraska (KOMA and KLNK), and western Iowa will be spotty in
nature. This introduces substantial uncertainty as to when any
given TAF site will see precipitation as the prevailing weather
type. Have opted to exclude precip in KLNK and KOMA TAFs due to
low precip probabilities, but will monitor for redevelopment of
precip and will amened in needed.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ012-015-
     017-018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-016.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah


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