509
FXUS63 KOAX 282110
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
410 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather is expected Monday, letting the area catch its
  collective breath.

- Showers and storms return Tuesday, with a 5 to 15% chance
  that those storms will be severe.

- Storms redevelop Wednesday, and prolonged rainfall could lead
  to flooding along with a few severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the deep,
mature mid-latitude system as it still spins over the Central and
Norther Plains, with divergent flow in the mid-levels to its west
with several shortwaves embedded in the flow. At the surface,
surface low was noted just to the west of Fremont and a cold front
extending southward, with an overall weak pressure gradient
surrounding the low despite it`s mature stage. Extending to the
northeast then east is a warm front that had most of it`s character
sapped by morning convection that has overall put a damper on any
storm potential. Nonetheless, a meager amount of instability
continues to advect with the surface low and cold front to sustain
weak convection with occasional gusts over 30 mph and quick
downpours while mist and dreary conditions are left in northeast
Nebraska behind the it. Expect this band of weak convection to
continue moving east-northeast with a more restricted area of
drizzle being left behind directly to the west of the surface low
and following it northeast into the evening hours. Winds have swung
westerly to northwesterly behind the cold front, with some gusts to
25 mph in northeast Nebraska with temperatures anticipated to
reach their peak within the next few hours before they trend
back down to lows in the lower 40s tonight.

Monday and Beyond:

As today`s system continues to move to the east, quick-moving zonal
flow is left behind and we get a breather for Monday with dry
conditions expected. Highs will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s
with northwesterly winds turning southerly during the evening hours.

A compact shortwave is expected to zip through the zonal flow
Tuesday with a warm front bisecting the region. Hodographs in the
vicinity of the warm front continue to have plenty of curvature in
the low levels with sufficient shear and instability to warrant
another afternoon/evening of severe potential with hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes all being a concern. There continues to be some
timing differences between the global solutions, but the speed
of the system moving into the area will shift the main risk area
to the west or east (as it sits right now, the entirety of the
area has severe potential). Along with the storm chances will be
very gusty winds as the surface system quickly deepens, with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected. By midnight, most of the
activity is expected to be east of the forecast area, with a
stationary front to the south. Into Wednesday, showers and
storms are once again expected with residual fronts in the area
helping to focus potentially prolonged areas of rainfall and
could result in flooding and some severe weather.

Thursday and Friday will see decreasing rain chances with only the
leftovers of the Wednesday/Wednesday night system lingering. Cooler
highs in the low 60s are on tap for Friday with a gradual warmup
into the weekend with the active patter precipitation wise likely to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered showers and storms are in place at all three
terminals, with IFR ceilings expected to persist for most of the
forecast period at KOFK. Farther south and east, KLNK and KOMA
continue to chug along with largely MVFR ceilings while
visibilities go briefly IFR as strong showers and storms move
through. Based on current shower and storm activity, they should
continue at KOMA and KLNK for the next hour and a half to three
hours, ending first at KLNK then KOMA. Winds are currently out
of the west or northwest at KOFK and that wind shift will spread
to KLNK and KOMA, with westerly winds expected by late this
afternoon. Ceiling restrictions are expected to begin easing
tomorrow morning at KOMA and KLNK while KOFK may have to wait
into the afternoon for the return of VFR conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen