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000
FXUS66 KOTX 262304
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
404 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend and early next week will feature showery weather over
the mountains with seasonal like temperatures. Sunday and Monday
have the potential to be windy with the passage of a frontal
system. This system will also bring snow to the Cascade mountain
passes Sunday night and Monday morning. Temperatures begin to warm
mid next week onward, but showers remain in the forecast as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday Night: A trough is moving into the Pacific
Northwest and will keep showers going through the weekend.
Instability is pretty week and so far have only seen one cloud
flash in western Okanogan county. Instability is peaking now or in
the next hour or so and then will wane through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Showers will continue through the night
across the Idaho Panhandle under the favorable southwesterly flow
as the low moves across northern Oregon. Then Saturday we will see
renewed showers across the region with a 20-30% chance of
thunderstorms, mainly across northern WA and ID.

Winds will increase Saturday afternoon across central WA and
increase further on Sunday as the next trough approaches. South to
southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with some localized sustained winds
up to 25 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph is forecast. Don`t think the
gusts will be strong enough to create blowing dust, but the
sustained winds speeds may be strong enough. NBM is showing a
50-70% chance of sustained winds to 20 mph Saturday across
portions of the Waterville Plateau and a 70-80% chance on Sunday.
The area extends Sunday and there is a 30-50% chance of sustained
winds to 20 mph across portions of the Columbia Basin (eastern
Grant county and western Lincoln and Adams counties). Have added
some patchy blowing dust during the mid to late afternoon for
these areas.

As the second trough moves into the area Sunday evening snow
levels will lower across the Cascades impacting the Stevens and
Snoqualmie Passes. There is a 70-80% chance of seeing 3 inches of
snow through Monday morning, and a 30-35% chance of 5 inches.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below average, or lows in
the mid 30s to mid 40s and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
/Nisbet

Monday through Friday: Cooling temperatures, gusty winds, and
occasional mountain showers will be the main events of early next
week. As a shortwave trough moves through Sunday night into Monday,
snow levels will fall to 2k-3k feet with the lowest snow levels over
the Cascades and highest snow levels over the ID Panhandle. By
Monday morning, 4 to 6 inches of snow are expected to have fallen at
Stevens Pass and 2 to 4 inches at Washington Pass. Snow will
continue through the day on Monday, but any accumulations will
quickly melt after sunrise.

Winds will be breezy through the day on Monday with sustained winds
in the 20 to 25 mph range for the Waterville Plateau, Palouse, and
exposed areas of the Basin. Gusts in the neighborhood of 30 to 45
mph will be possible. Wind speeds will gradually decrease Monday
night into Tuesday. Patchy blowing dust won`t be out of the question
on Monday with planting well underway in agricultural areas. Weak
thunderstorms capable of producing a few lightning strikes will pop
up each afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday, model guidance is split between a troughing pattern
lingering and a shortwave ridge moving in. Uncertainty is high as to
whether we`ll see warming and drying over the latter half of the
week, or whether our unsettled weather will continue. /Fewkes


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions tonight for all TAF locations with a
10-20% chance of MVFR cigs redeveloping for GEG/SFF/COE/PUW
towards 15Z, though confidence isn`t high and therefore have it as
a few/sct deck instead of bkn. Will see patchy to areas of fog
develop across the northeastern WA/north ID valleys aft 06Z. There
is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, though
highest confidence is along the Canadian border. Do not have
mention in the GEG/SFF/COE TAFs.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low to Moderate confidence of showers for COE Saturday afternoon.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  61  40  58  39  54 /  20  20  10  10  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  42  59  41  55  38  51 /  20  30  10  40  30  60
Pullman        41  57  39  56  37  50 /  20  10   0  10  30  50
Lewiston       47  65  46  64  44  58 /  20  20  10   0  30  40
Colville       36  61  35  58  35  54 /  40  40  20  30  40  60
Sandpoint      42  58  41  52  39  47 /  50  40  40  60  60  80
Kellogg        43  56  43  52  39  46 /  40  60  20  60  50  80
Moses Lake     40  65  40  64  38  60 /  10  20   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  61  42  61  40  56 /  20  20   0   0   0  10
Omak           42  65  39  63  38  59 /  30  30   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$