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000
FXUS66 KOTX 250507
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1007 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break tonight and Thursday morning, another system
will bring wide spread precip to the Inland Northwest. It will
start a cooler, showery period that will last through the weekend
and into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Thursday: As the weak cold front exits the region,
winds will calm. Thursday morning will start pleasant. Increasing
clouds will build west to east across the region as the next
system begins to move into the Inland Northwest. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

Late Thursday through Friday: Another Low will quickly move
through the Pacific Northwest. It is expected to bring a round of
much needed showers to the Inland Northwest with most areas with
at least a 30% probability of at least a tenth of an inch of
precip. The east slopes of the Cascades is expected to be impacted
by the rain shadow effect and should receive less. Increased
cloud cover and cooler airmass will lead to cooling trend for the
rest the of period. An isolated lightning strike is possible with
these showers but confidence is very low. Thursday and Friday
highs will in the mid 50s to 60s. Overnight lows will be in the
30s and low 40s.

Saturday through Tuesday: Models are keeping the region in a
cooler, wet pattern as a strong Low slowly moves through the Gulf
of Alaska. The region can expect periods of mountain snow for the
Cascades and rain showers for the rest of the Inland Northwest.
Many areas will receive beneficial rains after the previous dry
spell across the region. Highs will continue to be in the mid 50s
and 60s. By the end of the entire period, portions of the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle could receive near half an inch of
precip. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and low 40s.
Some areas in the northern valleys could see upper 20s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An occluded front will push across the region today
with rain and lowering ceilings expected. The front will push
across the Cascades around early afternoon and into the Idaho
Panhandle by the late afternoon. Light rain is expected across all
airports with the potential for MVFR condition through the
afternoon and into the evening. /SVH

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings with the
incoming rain Thursday afternoon will be a challenge. GFS MOS is
quite pessimistic for Wenatchee with ceilings below 2000 feet with
periods below 1000 feet in the afternoon. The HREF doesn`t
forecast ceilings quite that low, perhaps because it is ensemble
based guidance. For the time being, we went with more optimistic
ceilings as the rain spreads from west to east in the afternoon.
/GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  60  44  57  42  58 /   0  40  80  70  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  58  43  53  41  55 /  10  30  90  80  30  50
Pullman        40  58  43  55  40  56 /  10  30  90  80  30  30
Lewiston       45  66  49  61  46  63 /   0  30  80  60  20  20
Colville       36  61  41  56  40  58 /  10  40  90  90  50  70
Sandpoint      41  55  44  52  41  54 /  10  40  90  90  50  70
Kellogg        44  55  45  50  43  53 /  10  40  90  90  50  70
Moses Lake     41  63  43  65  42  67 /   0  40  30  20  10  10
Wenatchee      44  60  46  62  44  63 /   0  50  30  20  10  10
Omak           41  63  45  62  44  65 /   0  50  70  50  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$