980
FXUS64 KOUN 290709
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Some morning fog, some dense, across the south central/southeast
will linger through mid-morning before dissipating. A dense fog
advisory has been issued for portions southeast Oklahoma for this
morning.

Storm system will continue to move away from the area today with
weak surface boundary washing out and south winds returning to the
entire area by afternoon. A minor wave moves out of the Rockies by
afternoon and perhaps an isolated storm may impact far northwest
Oklahoma. Any storm that does develop is not expected to become
severe as instability will remain limited. Otherwise, mainly sunny
skies and warm temperatures expected across the area today.

Similar conditions continue tonight as temperatures fall from the
80s back into the lower 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tuesday looks to begin a stretch of a more active period with
chances for severe weather as well as some heavy rainfall that could
lead to an increased flood risk.

First off for Tuesday, dryline gets reestablished across western
Oklahoma with afternoon CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and modest
wind fields. Although no real strong upper wave is present, still
appears that some isolated severe storms are possible by late in the
day and into the evening hours. To the west of the dryline across
northwest Oklahoma elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will occur as RH values drop into the teens with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. This area again missed out on any
significant precip over the weekend.

Increase in southwest flow occurs by Wednesday in advance of broad
western trough. Some hint of minor wave moves out into the Plains
Wednesday afternoon with dryline again tightening up near the 100th
meridian and warm sector instability again in excess of 2500 J/kg.
This along with strengthening wind fields expect to see scattered
storms along and east of the dryline, some of these would likely be
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards.
Also this activity could continue through the overnight leading to
excessive rainfall and increasing risk of flooding. By this time a
flood watch may be needed across parts of the area.

By Thursday with the approach of the main upper trough, an
associated surface front will surge south with continued chance for
showers and storms along and south of the front. Conditions ahead of
the front will again be conducive for severe storms and additional
heavy rainfall.

Front sweeps across the area with drier and cooler weather expected
for Friday. However, this dry weather looks to be short-lived as
models show subtropical jet brings energy toward the southern Plains
from the Baja region and more potentially heavy rainfall for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

All terminals except KDUA will remain under VFR conditions through
the entire forecast period. Expecting fog to develop after 09Z
across southeast Oklahoma with terminal KDUA initially reducing to
MVFR conditions then down to LIFR conditions due to lowering
stratus between 13-16Z then returning to VFR conditions for the
rest of the forecast. Surface winds will be light and northerly
through 17Z then becoming southeasterly between 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  61  85  66 /  10   0  20  20
Hobart OK         82  60  88  64 /  10   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  84  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           82  57  93  60 /  20   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     78  58  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
Durant OK         83  60  83  66 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ032-
     041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68