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000
FXUS63 KPAH 172336
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-Mid 80s continues another day (Thursday).

- A potentially big severe weather event looks increasingly
  possible Thursday afternoon-evening into Thursday night.
  Damaging winds is the main hazard, but large hail and tornadoes
  are also within the envelope of anticipated hazards.

- Turning seasonally cooler Friday through the weekend, as
  highs/lows in the 80s/60s transition to 60s/40s. Some upper
  30s are possible both weekend nights, and if skies clear/winds
  diminish, some frost potential exists then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Our next thunderstorm chance looks like a good one. A fast
moving/developing low pressure storm system will return a warm
front across the region by early tmrw pm, to be followed by its
cold front`s approach and passage. This will all occur right
at/with peak heating, and both Mixed and Most Unstable CAPEs
respond accordingly, bubbling upward to 2000+ J/KG. 100-200 kts
helicity is modeled coincident with this in the lower 1KM by
00Z. All of the CAMs show a bowing convective line moving across
the heart of the FA in the 21-03Z time frame, and some suggest
potential warm sector cells (albeit more isolated) may occur as
early as 18-21Z. We think the main show will be the latter, with
damaging winds potentially a widespread event...so there is now
an enhanced risk over virtually the entire FA for 30% wind,
5-15% hail, and 2-5% isolated tors. Unlike last system, the cap
should be eroded and mid level lapse rates will be increasing
to 7-8 C/KM (versus decreasing last time). With sharp
convergence offered by the incoming front, these should all
promote better severe storm chances this time.

The front makes complete passage overnight, and then draws in
much cooler and ultimately drier air for the week`s end. We`ll
transition from our recent run of 80s/60s for highs/lows, to
60s/40s that will extend into early next week. If skies clear
and winds diminish, some weekend lows in the upper 30s with a
chance for frost may be offered on the forecast table as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A frontal boundary bisects the Quad State north from south this
evening. Winds will become light with sunset and then south
winds will develop in the morning, as the remnant boundary
lifts north of the region into the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are
likely in the south just before sunrise, and there are even
hints of IFR ceilings. The MVFR ceilings will lift northward
with/behind the front and may impact all sites by mid-morning.
Ceilings should lift to VFR levels around midday. South winds
will increase by midday and gusts to near 20kts will be
possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DRS