Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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FGUS73 KPAH 141454
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
952 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for mid-March through mid-May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for
much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries
in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A
strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and
warmer winter across the entire region.
Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.
...Current Conditions...
While some rain fell within the past week, rain totals were
negligible. Precipitation totals for most locations across the
region for the month of February were less than one inch. While
there is a small rise coming down some of the bigger rivers due to
forecasted rainfall, no forecast points are expected to exceed flood
stage.
Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 10 to 20 percent of
normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running less than 20
percent of normal near the confluence. Most areas are below normal
average flow.
Surface soil moisture is below normal but it is responsive to local
rainfall. Deeper soil moisture and longer term accumulative averages
remain below normal. There is no frost depth in our region. There is
no significant snow in either the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys.
...Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Green River
Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 20 33 11 20 <5 <5
Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 63 64 18 22 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 63 64 37 38 17 20
:Ohio River
Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 15 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 27 44 <5 6 <5 <5
Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 75 51 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 57 66 <5 <5 <5 <5
Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 71 75 <5 <5 <5 <5
Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 23 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 67 79 18 35 <5 <5
J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 60 71 <5 6 <5 <5
:Patoka River
Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 59 62 40 47 15 13
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 41 40 33 33 20 20
:Wabash River
New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 68 79 19 26 <5 <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 45 55 10 12 <5 <5
Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 46 69 28 47 15 16
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 15.1 15.8 16.6 18.2 21.4 26.4 29.6
Paradise 373.6 375.8 378.5 381.6 384.6 387.5 390.3
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 19.6 21.0 24.5 29.7 33.9 35.9 36.8
:Ohio River
Evansville 27.5 28.8 34.1 37.3 40.8 42.6 42.8
Golconda 32.9 33.3 35.0 37.6 40.2 44.2 46.1
Henderson 23.3 24.5 29.5 32.6 36.1 38.1 38.3
Mount Vernon 27.8 28.6 32.8 35.8 39.5 41.8 42.2
Newburgh Dam 29.4 32.1 37.3 41.3 43.4 44.6 44.9
Owensboro 26.6 29.1 33.4 36.8 39.7 41.6 42.0
Shawneetown 27.1 28.1 31.3 36.3 40.8 45.4 47.1
J.T. Myers Dam 29.0 30.0 34.3 38.9 42.3 45.5 47.3
:Patoka River
Princeton 12.0 13.5 16.0 19.1 21.3 24.0 24.3
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 8.0 8.9 10.1 12.6 19.1 22.0 24.8
:Wabash River
New Harmony 9.6 11.4 14.4 16.7 19.7 20.6 21.0
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 12.0 12.6 16.4 19.1 22.0 27.0 31.7
Murphysboro 13.1 14.5 17.9 20.4 29.1 41.4 41.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5
Paradise 367.2 366.8 366.0 365.4 365.1 364.9 364.8
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7
:Ohio River
Evansville 16.4 15.9 15.2 14.5 14.0 13.8 13.7
Golconda 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5
Henderson 14.3 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2
Mount Vernon 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3
Newburgh Dam 17.0 16.7 15.5 14.7 13.8 13.5 13.4
Owensboro 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Shawneetown 19.2 18.3 17.5 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.2
J.T. Myers Dam 19.1 17.6 16.1 15.0 14.2 13.3 13.0
:Patoka River
Princeton 8.1 7.9 7.0 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.7
:Wabash River
New Harmony 5.0 4.1 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 9.9 8.4 7.4 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.6
Murphysboro 9.0 7.2 5.5 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Weather Outlooks...
A fairly strong spring storm will affect the region through Friday.
Showers and storms are possible. Some of the strong storms may
produce brief heavy rainfall.
The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 21 through 27 calls for normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are around 50 degrees and rainfall
during this period is between 1 and 1.2 inches.
The Outlook through March calls for equal chances for precipitation.
This means that there is no strong signal in the long range models
and there are equal chances for normal, below normal, and above
normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4
1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May calls for above normal
precipitation.
Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.
This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for
2024 unless conditions warrant.
$$
Lamm