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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

000
FNUS75 KRIW 241212
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Medicine Lodge RX...BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
612 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Another warm and dry day today, with temperatures reaching the
mid 50s. Humidity levels will fall to 15 to 20 percent in the
afternoon. Winds will remain light today, staying under 10 mph
through the day. Skies will be mostly clear today, with only high
cirrus during the afternoon. Humidity recovery overnight will be
fair, reaching 55 to 60 percent.

Increasing clouds expected on Thursday, with rain likely. Isolated
thunder is possible in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures and rain
in the vicinity will keep humidity levels elevated above 35
percent through the day. Winds will be generally from the west 10
to 15 mph. Rain remains likely through the rest of the upcoming
weekend.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL increasing to 6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (87200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33  29  24  20  18  18  19  20  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  50  51  53  54  55  55  56  56
RH..............31  29  29  27  26  24  23  20  19
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   9   10  9   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   11  13  12  12  10  10
Ridge wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.1 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.7 6.7 6.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  16  16  16  15  15  15
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100012  12  12  67  67  67  87  87  87

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......South around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the southeast 15
                    to 17 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  39  50  59  63  63  60  55  49  45  44  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............56  54  51  49  48  47  48  46  46  45  44  43
RH..............19  25  27  30  33  34  34  38  40  43  49  51
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   SE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   9   11  11  10  9   9   9   9   7
20 FT wind gust.10  8   7   11  14  14  13  11  11  12  12  10
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 4.5 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   17  17  17  16  16  16  15  15  15
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100036  36  36  8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 33 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 7 mph late in the morning, then shifting
                    to the west 9 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......East around 15 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 14 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (96700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  49  50  52  55  59  62  64  66  68  70  73
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   30  30  30  30  30  30
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  30  40  50  60  70  70  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............42  45  47  50  51  53  54  55  55  56  55  54
RH..............57  51  49  46  46  43  40  38  40  38  40  41
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   5   6   7   7   9   9   9   10  11  12
20 FT wind gust.10  10  8   7   10  10  12  12  12  13  14  17
Ridge wind dir..E   E   E   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 6.0 6.0 6.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  13  13  16  16  16  18  18  18
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10006   6   6   20  20  20  59  59  59  97  97  97

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Cooler. Showers, scattered thunderstorms and snow showers. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Showers, snow showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the mid
30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 11 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Numerous showers and snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs
in the mid 40s. Northwest winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Straub
Requested by...Derek Trauntvein
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411860.1/RIW
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dtrauntv@blm.gov