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000
FXUS61 KRLX 240621
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating rain exits southeast this morning, a few additional
showers this afternoon. Dry and warming for the rest of the
work week. Chance for weekend showers and afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Light rain continues to work across the region this morning along
and ahead of a surface cold front. Wide dew point depressions ahead
of this line have yielded some initial gustiness 20-35 mph before
the surface layer works toward saturation. Accumulating rainfall is
expected to exit to the southeast near or shortly after daybreak
this morning. Cooler air advects in behind the front on north-
northwesterly flow keeping daytime highs generally in the upper 50s
to upper 60s, coolest north. Cooler air aloft will set up some
decent low low level lapse rates, and at least some upstream
moisture connection the Great Lakes will exist. This could yield
some additional low topped showery activity through late this
afternoon, mainly near the mountains.

Overnight tonight, light northerly flow and at least some initial
presence of clouds will help to limit frost formation. Could see
temperatures nudging down toward freezing across some of our Ohio
counties, but probabilities of below 32 degrees have dipped some
over the last forecast cycle. May eventually need a frost or
possibly even freeze warning for some of these locations, but
forecast confidence is not there to expand on our neighboring
watches for now. Based on initial collaboration it also seems as
though those neighboring watches will remain watches for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Cold front exits east Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return behind the front later on Wednesday.
* Frost possible Thursday morning.

A cold front will push east of the eastern mountains early
Wednesday. However, another upper level shortwave pushes a
reinforcement front, bringing much colder and drier airmass to
the area. This later feature will put an end to the lingering
showers over the mountains by Wednesday evening.

Despite of dry air moving in, moisture remains trapped beneath
the inversion, anticipating afternoon cu development about
4-5kft persisting through Wednesday afternoon. Then, skies will
gradually clear up Wednesday evening.

Highs remain sightly below normal for Wednesday afternoon, generally
in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher
elevations. With cold and dry air in place, low temperatures
Wednesday night may drop into the lower 30s across northern mid Ohio
valley and northern WV.

The combination of chilly temperatures and clearing skies, will
allow for areas of frost to develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Dry with warming trend Thursday and Friday
* Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend.
* Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower 80s.

Strong surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, extending
south into the OH valley and WV Thursday. This high will provide dry
weather conditions with a warming trend through the end of the week.

Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front
develops across the south, establishing southwest flow and moisture
advection. Showers continues Saturday as the warm front lifts north
across the area. While the area remains on the warm sector, moisture
and instability builds mainly west of the area, while a series of
shortwaves cross aloft. These two features will act to support the
potential for thunderstorms on Saturday.

A warming trend continues, becoming hot over the weekend, with
lowland temperatures reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s
on Sunday.

Still uncertain how the weather will evolve after the weekend with
as upper level ridge axis exiting east of the area, while upper level
disturbances approach from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Light rain activity along and ahead of a cold front will largely
work its way out of the region before daybreak. Cool air advection
in its wake will yield a period of MVFR ceilings, improving to VFR
through late morning early afternoon. A few additional instability
showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly near CKB or EKN -
confidence too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Winds generally southwesterly and erratically gusty ahead of the
precipitation shield this morning, shift more northwesterly late
morning and eventually northerly by this evening 8-12KTs with gusts
up to 20KTs through the late afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers could affect EKN or CKB this
afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Patchy IFR in valley fog possible Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MEK
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP