533
FXUS61 KRLX 061704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
104 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily
chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will
pose concern for localized flooding each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 927 AM Monday...

A few small adjustments were made to PoPs to reflect recent
radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast still remains on track.

As of 635 AM Monday...

Freshened up POPs this morning to reflect current radar trends,
with very light radar returns beginning to spread into eastern
Kentucky. More measurable showers are still progged to arrive
several hours from now. Also fine tuned shower and storm
coverage this afternoon with newly refreshed hi-res model
guidance. Temperatures and sky conditions remain on track this
morning.

As of 255 AM Monday...

A disturbance encroaches the area starting this morning,
kicking off what looks to be an active weather week. A frontal
boundary will be draped along the northern extent of the
forecast area today amid shortwave energy gliding up from the
south. The stalled front, coupled with the approaching
shortwave trough, will help give rise to showers and isolated
thunderstorm development for the second half of the period.

Radar trends at the time of writing depicted storms pressing
into Kentucky, which will then be progged to lift north into
the forecast area through the day. Early morning CAM guidance
suggests precipitation moving into our southwestern zones some
time between 9-11 AM, then engulfing the forecast area under
POPs on the order of 50-80% for the afternoon and evening
timeframe.

PWATs will be on the rise amid the strong southerly pull of
moisture, leaping back up to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by this
afternoon. Localized flooding concerns grow by the day as flash
flood guidance is chipped away by daily showers and storms. This
will especially be the case in the event of heavy downpours
and/or repetitive showers/storms not only today, but stretching
into the extended forecast period as well.

With excess cloud cover expected over the area today, afternoon
highs will fall a few degrees shy of readings that were
observed over the weekend. Instability will also be kept at bay
as a result, with severe weather being limited for today.
Precipitation diminishes to slight chances (20-30%) late tonight
as the shortwave trough departs off the Delmarva coast, but
looks to return in earnest heading into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding
  possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and
  hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can`t be ruled out.
* Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and
  localized flooding.

Tuesday begins with a warm front draped across northern WV and OH
and a shortwave tracking towards the Great Lakes region. This wave
and surface low are eventually expected to push a cold front into
the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air flows into the area well in advance
of the front and helps to facilitate the development of showers and
thunderstorms during the day. Forecast soundings continue to show
potential for moderate to strong instability in concert with DCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and 30-40kts of effective shear Tuesday
afternoon and evening. During this time, isolated to scattered
storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail as the
main concerns, though a tornado isn`t out of the question either.
PWATs hovering in the 1-2 inch range also indicate storms may be
accompanied by heavy downpours which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

The aforementioned cold front progresses across the CWA Tuesday
night, then is expected to be lifted back to the north as a warm
front Wednesday into Wednesday night as yet another low tracks out
of the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes. Severe weather
will again be possible, with potential for damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes on Wednesday. The new day 3 outlook from SPC
has highlighted the majority of the area in a slight risk of
severe weather, but clips part of northeast Kentucky with an
enhanced risk. Flooding concerns also persist on Wednesday as
storms bring more locally heavy rain to areas that are gradually
becoming saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled pattern persists through the period.
* Strongest, heaviest thunderstorms most likely on Thursday.

A mid-upper level short wave trough approaches Thursday, and
then crosses on Friday, leaving a more southern stream
component stranded out over the Four Corners Region. A second
mid-upper level short wave trough then crosses this weekend.

A surface low pressure system associated with the first trough
passes just north of the forecast area Thursday, its cold front
crossing the forecast area during the morning to midday hours.
With very warm and moist air having been transported across the
area ahead of the system, showers will be widespread across the
area Thursday morning, with embedded heavier rainfall including
a few thunderstorms. Flooding potential this week is likely to
be highest Thursday given the likelihood of heavy rain on
saturated grounds from following rounds of heavy rain during the
short term.

Elevated CAPE up around 2 KJ/kg and intense shear associated
with the system, including 0-3 km storm relative helicity
possibly as high as 400 ms/s2, could lead to severe weather
including a tornado or two Thursday, despite the early day
timing. A more isolated severe threat continues through the peak
heating hours, even as the initial cold front passes.

Thunderstorms weaken and dissipate, and shower coverage
decreases, Thursday night. The passage of the mid-upper level
trough Friday is likely to lead to an increase in shower and
thunderstorm coverage again, especially during the afternoon
heating, with gusty winds and hail possible beneath the cold air
aloft.

The second short wave trough follows right on the heels of its
predecessor and slowly crosses next weekend. With a weaker
surface reflection, this will lead to more diurnally tied
showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty as to how deep
the trough digs, but the more it does, the greater the afternoon
hail threat, especially if it digs far enough south to get its
low center over the forecast area.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures Thursday getting
knocked back to around normal for Friday and the weekend, in the
wake of the passage of the first trough and surface low pressure
system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Monday...

Despite the mid to upper level cloud deck now taking up
residency over the Central Appalachians, patchy river valley fog
has been able to sprout at a few TAF sites this morning (CRW,
PKB, CKB, & EKN). Low level vsby restrictions will gradually
lift over the next few hours as mixing erodes lingering fog
after sunrise.

Otherwise, awaiting showers and eventual afternoon
thunderstorms to press through the area today in response to a
southern stream disturbance gliding up along a warm front. Rain
will become more likely in the form of -shra or -tsra by mid-
morning, then flourish into the afternoon and evening. A few
tempo groups were included with the 12Z issuance, but additional
AMDs may be needed pending radar trends. Activity gradually
winds down overnight, but returning once more on Tuesday.

Ceilings will tumble to MVFR or worse later today, then spanning
into the overnight period tonight. Forecast soundings indicate
another night for fog potential tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Low level winds will shift out of the southwest
through the day as a cold front out inches closer to the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low in fog; medium for the
afternoon.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of shower/storm
restrictions may vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK/JMC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MEK