353
FXUS61 KRNK 300006
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
806 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in dry weather and unseasonably warm
temperatures today, then a low pressure system will push a cold
front through the region on Tuesday, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the middle of the week. Some shower and thunderstorm
potential continues for parts of the area Wednesday, and again
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Skies still remain clear and winds have relaxed a bit as we lose
mixing from daytime heating. No major changes were needed and
only a few adjustments to temperatures and dew points were made.



As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

  - Unseasonably warm today
  - Rain entering from the west tomorrow afternoon

Bright blue clear skies are the order of the day in our region.
A ridge and surface high pressure are cooperating to suppress
cloud formation. Deep southerly flow is advecting warm air
directly into the Mid-Atlantic from the Gulf. Full sun is
heating the surface as well, leading to an anomalously warm late
April day. Temperatures will approach record highs. See climate
section below for info on record highs at our climate sites.

Tomorrow morning will begin much the same, as we are positioned
in the warm sector of an approaching front. Clouds will begin
filling in from the west, and as fropa begin in WV in the early
afternoon, showers will spread across the area through the
afternoon and into the evening. There will be some thunderstorms
contained within tomorrow`s system, but they will be on the
weaker end for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:
1. Above normal temperatures continue through midweek.
2. Lingering isolated showers Wednesday, dry weather Thursday.

Following the passage of a cold front Tuesday night, some isolated
showers may linger overnight into Wednesday. The upper shortwave
associated with the surface front will be to the east of the area by
Wednesday afternoon, so could see some scattered showers again later
in the day. A 500mb ridge builds back over the area briefly by
Thursday, as a surface high expands into the region, thus expecting
dry weather for Thursday. As the high slides eastward through
Thursday, winds will transition from northeasterly to southeasterly,
helping to increase temperatures a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:
1. Dry for most on Friday, showers and storms return
Saturday, continue on Sunday.
2. Warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend, though
cooler on Sunday.

By the second half of the work week, a 500mb low develops over the
north central US, and moves generally eastward, working to flatten
the ridging pattern over the eastern US. A surface low deepens and
tracks northeastward across the Great Lakes into southern Canada.
The associated cold front will reach the area by Saturday, bringing
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. With ample moisture
being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico, expecting greater
coverage of showers and storms than the previous system earlier in
the work week for much of the day Saturday and overnight into Sunday.

Another front approaches from the west by Sunday, and surface high
pressure pushes southward into the area from the northeastern US.
Plentiful cloud cover and a wedging pattern with the surface high
will likely keep Sunday on the cooler side for temperatures,
especially compared to the previous workweek. Although there are
differences among the deterministic long range models on exact
timing and placement of the heaviest precipitation, chances for
showers and some storms are present through the weekend and
into the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

VFR and light winds are expected through tonight. Some increase
in clouds begin overnight in the form of cirrus. Winds will
increase again tomorrow from the southwest, especially east of
the mountains. A weak disturbance will be passing over the
region and a few afternoon showers/storms will be possible. VCTS
has been added for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Confidence is not high that these potential storms/showers make
it to LYH/DAN.

Low vsby from heavy downpours and erratic gusty winds in/near
storms will be possible over the mountains starting around 18z
for LWB/BLF and moving east to ROA/BCB by 21z.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

NW winds arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday
with TSRA and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
will be possible again on Wednesday as the front exits the
area.

Thursday is forecast to be VFR and dry.

The next cold front and probability of precipitation arrive in
the area on Friday. This brings the potential for showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Record highs for April 29

Bluefield, WV....86 in 2017
Danville, VA.....91 in 1981
Lynchburg, VA....88 in 1974
Roanoke, VA......89 in 1944
Blacksburg, VA...86 in 2017

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...BMG/VFJ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ
CLIMATE...AMS