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000
FNUS71 KRNK 161012
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Brush Mountain Unit 3...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
612 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry this morning with scattered cloud cover and light/variable
winds. Winds remain light today from the south.

A stalled front is draped across the region and will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. RH this
morning around 90 percent. Min RH around 50 percent by
early afternoon. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances over
western Virginia are highest from 1pm to 6pm today.

Moisture increases on Wednesday as a front with more widespread
rainfall chances approaches the area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 2 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest
                    8 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (34500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 47 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  39  61  69  82  85  87  66  74  76
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  20  20  20  30  40  40
Temp............58  60  63  66  69  71  73  74  74  72
RH..............82  74  66  60  56  52  52  52  53  58
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.6   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 1.7
Mixng wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Mixng wind spd..2   3   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   8
LVORI...........5   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............2   5   10  15  23  34  40  46  47  19
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.1   4   8   12  18  27  33  39  40  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms early in
                    the evening. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    east around 5 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light early in the evening becoming
                    east around 5 mph late in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 3 to 6 mph decreasing to 1 to 6 mph
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 to 8.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........75     59     42     52     50     65
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............30     20     20     20     20     10
Temp............70     67     64     62     61     59
RH..............62     69     73     78     82     87
20 ft wind......NW 6   E 4    E 5    E 4    E 4    E 3
20 ft wind gust.10     6      6      6      6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   400    400    500    500    500
Mixing wind......S 6    E 1    SE 3   SE 6   SE 6   SE 5
LVORI...........3      4      3      4      5      6
ADI.............8      1      2      4      4      2
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      6
VRate mph-ft/1K.6      0      1      3      3      2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 9 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 3 to 5 mph shifting to the southwest 7 to
                    12 mph late in the morning, then increasing to
                    17 to 22 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (84400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 83 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........86     76     93     85     71     69
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     20     20     30
Temp............59     60     66     71     74     76
RH..............88     84     71     60     51     46
20 ft wind......E 3    SE 3   SW 3   S 6    S 8    S 9
20 ft wind gust.4             6      10     12     14
Mix hgt (ft)....500    400    800    2200   4700   3400
Mixing wind......SE 3   SE 3   S 5    SW 12  SW 21  S 21
LVORI...........6      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............1      4      5      33     83     70
Haines index....6      6      6      6      5      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.1      2      4      26     97     69

$$
Forecaster...Gruver
Requested by...William Brimm
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410648.5/RNK
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL william.brimm@usda.gov