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000
FXUS63 KSGF 192310
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be dry for most this weekend with temperatures a bit
  below normal ...leading to patchy frost in sheltered areas
  Sunday morning then more widespread potential Monday morning.

- 20% of chance of showers along the Arkansas border Saturday
  then a 30-50% rain chances Monday Night into Tuesday with
  additional chances later in the week.

- Slow warming trend back to near normal early in the week
  becoming above normal into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cold front that brought severe weather to some yesterday has moved
southward through Arkansas leaving the region sunny as high pressure
approaches.

Cold air advection as evident by 1000-500 mb thickness will
result in daytime highs below normal this weekend but more
importantly will be overnight lows raising the question of
frost. Potential Saturday night has diminished with the NBM mean
in the upper 30s to near 40 with the 10% percentile depicting
some some lower 30s over the east. Thus the potential for frost
Saturday night leans toward the sheltered valleys to the east.

Sunday night`s potential for more patchy frost region wide has
increased as a clipper in the northern stream sends a reinforcing
shot of colder air into the Ozarks. Low temperatures over the
KS/MO border region to remain around 40...though to the east of
Highway 65 they have trended cooler with the mean percentile
now in the middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Temperatures will begin to respond warmer on Monday as the surface
high moves into the Ohio Valley and winds shift southerly over the
Ozarks.

The northern stream will bring another wave across the northern
Plains resulting in a weak frontal boundary producing rain Tuesday.
Mean NBM percentiles depict a 50% chance of light rain to the north
of Highway 54 diminishing to 20-30% from I-44 to the Arkansas
border. This rain will be light for those receiving any
activity... with only 10% of models even showing a 0.25 inches.

The upper flow will go zonal through midweek with energy digging
into SW US. Longer range models are showing similar patterns
though differ significantly in advancing this wave into the
central Plains Friday. The operational ECMWF is a bit faster
than its 00z output but still 12 hours behind the operational
GFS as it takes a negatively tilted wave into IOWA at 12z
Friday.

Confidence thus is reduced...though it is generally expected that
synoptic lift and moisture flow ahead of this system to be
sufficient for the development of warm advection convection
over at least the western portions of the forecast area
Wednesday night through Thursday before potential impacts with
the wave arrive Friday.

What is more certain though is that rainfall across the region
to remain less than 0.75 inches this coming week. Also,
temperatures throughout this time will continue their slow
warming trend toward the upper 70s to around 80 by next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with high clouds at times. Winds will remain out of
the northeast with a slight shift to the north on Saturday. No
precipitation is expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield