Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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671 FXUS63 KSGF 122310 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 610 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and t-storms (non-severe) this evening with increasing coverage and thunder overnight. More widespread showers and storms on Monday with a marginal severe risk Monday afternoon/evening over far southern MO. - Rain all day Monday; precipitation ending west to east Tuesday. - Additional precipitation possible late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A low pressure system slowly moving toward the has resulted in a few showers popping up nearby this afternoon. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through tonight, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The low will continue to move through the region Monday before moving out on Tuesday. Coverage of showers and storms will be greatest late tonight into Monday night. In the warm sector ahead of the low on Monday afternoon/evening, we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern CWA as models are now showing SBCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts. Overall, expect organization to be limited, which should limit severe threats to hail up to 1 inch in diameter and gusts less than 60 mph. Localized flooding is also possible on Monday, mainly due to increased soil moisture from recent rainfall events. Overall expect 0.5-1.5" across much of the area, but CAMs are showing potential for locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches. Precip will decrease in coverage during the day Tuesday, ending from west to east. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry for the most part, then models show another round of upper level energy bringing rain chances Wednesday night into Saturday. There is a high level of variability in guidance, which lowers confidence, but the best chances for rain are during the day Thursday at 50-70%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 For the 00z TAFS, some scattered afternoon convection has developed in an area between the JLN and SGF terminals. Believe this activity may skirt the SGF area and went VCSH in the TAFS, but not enough confidence for a tempo group. Main convection will be later tonight into Monday in association with an upper level low pressure system. Ceilings will lower after midnight with the convection moving in with MVFR and IFR conditions expected. Some clearing out will take place from mid morning into the early/mid afternoon before additional convection is expected to develop later in the afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Lindenberg