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000
FXUS64 KSJT 210539
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1239 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers and storms continue across much of West Central Texas
early this afternoon, with the convection gradually pushing east.
Shortwave helping aid lift is pushing east and should be exiting
the area this evening so much of the rain should end before
midnight even across the eastern areas. Dry conditions for late
tonight into Sunday, although temperatures will remain below
normal with highs remaining in the 60s tomorrow.

Have seen multiple reports of small hail with the convection,
along with rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range. Can not rule out
a stray storm pulsing up near severe levels, but with activity is
so widespread and cool temperatures limiting CAPE values, really
does look like it will end up being a mostly small hail and
pockets of rainfall heavy enough to cause street and creek
flooding more than anything else.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cold temperatures are forecast Monday morning, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 40s. A pleasant day is forecast on Monday with highs
topping out in the low to mid 70s. Expect a steady warm up through
the week, with highs on Tuesday through Thursday into the 80s, and
highs Friday into the weekend in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the northern
Plains Tuesday, sending a cold front south to near the Red River by
Wednesday morning. This front may be the focus for shower and
thunderstorms activity, but is forecast to generally remain north of
our area. For now, have kept some slight chance PoPs across the
northern Big Country on Wednesday. The next upper level trough is
forecast to track across the Desert Southwest Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, then across the Texas Panhandle Thursday night.
This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region, Thursday into Friday. Given the uncertainty this far out,
PoPs were kept in the slight chance to chance category. The next
upper level trough is forecast to approach the region next weekend,
which could bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

IFR conditions are expected to persist until around sunrise.
Ceilings should improve gradually from north to south through the
morning, becoming MVFR for most of the afternoon. Skies across the
Big Country should clear out by late afternoon, but remain
overcast around 3000ft further south. Some breaks in the MVFR
ceilings are possible this afternoon, depending on how much
heating occurs during that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  41  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  63  42  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    65  44  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   62  40  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  60  43  72  54 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       61  44  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       61  43  71  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...SK