278
FXUS64 KSJT 280541
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. We are
expecting two different rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms,
with the first beginning to develop across the Big Country early
this afternoon. A dryline is located west of our area, with an
increasingly unstable environment across much of the forecast area. A
few storms are beginning to develop across the Big Country and
across the South Plains region. The CAMS indicate that this activity
will continue to increase in coverage across the Big Country through
the afternoon hours, and this seems reasonable. Any storms that do
develop will likely quickly become strong to severe. The main
concerns with these storms will be very large, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.

A second, more widespread, round of strong to severe thunderstorms
is expected late tonight and into the early morning hours Sunday. A
Pacific cold front is forecast to approach the region from the west
late this evening and eventually collide with the dryline. The lift
from this collision along with upper level support as an upper level
trough approaches should result in the rapid development of
thunderstorms just west of our area between 8 PM and 10 PM. This
activity is then forecast to slowly spread east across the region
through the overnight hours. The development of a QLCS is possible,
and very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible with
this line. Most of this activity should be east of the region by
sunrise. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible,
especially across our eastern counties, and flooding is possible
within any thunderstorms, especially on roadways and low lying areas.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60, with highs on
Sunday in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Active weather pattern continues next week, with afternoon and
evening dry-line thunderstorm activity possible across portions of
the forecast area most days. Storms could be strong to severe at
times. Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs in the mid
80s to low 90s most days.

Zonal flow aloft and subsidence behind a departing short-wave Monday
will result in mostly dry conditions that day. Strengthening of the
850 mb thermal ridge will result in warmer temperatures, with highs
Monday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Southwest flow aloft returns
Tuesday through Thursday as another low pressure system moves into
the Pacific Northwest and makes its way through the Central Plains.
Each day, Tuesday through Thursday, some afternoon/evening strong to
severe thunderstorm activity could occur off the dry-line (which
looks to set-up close to, or across, our western counties) as
multiple short-waves move up in the southwest flow aloft. Depending
on exact placement of the dry-line, strength of the capping
inversion, amount on instability, and strength of the short-waves,
storms could impact portions of our forecast area each
afternoon/evening. Highs each day look to continue in the mid 80s to
low 90s range.

Friday, a cold front looks to move down at some point. Earlier
timing would result in a dry day, while later timing could result in
more thunderstorms activity for Friday. A deeper, slower upper level
low will move into the Western CONUS next weekend, putting us again
in southwest flow aloft, with the potential for more
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period across all
of the TAF sites with CIG FEW015-OVC250. The will be periods of
SKC later in the period. The winds will be generally breezy to
windy (10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts and out from the west
through 10Z. There is a line of TS that is impacting the KABI and
KSJT. This line will continue to progress eastward over the next
couple of of hours impacting the rest of the terminals. With TS
in the VC, the VSBY will be reduced to 1 to 2 SM at least through
09Z. After this line of TS moves out, both the winds and the VSBY
will improve. The winds are expected to become light AOB 10 kts
and generally out of between the west and northwest through the
06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     57  82  55  87 /  80   0   0   0
San Angelo  57  85  54  91 /  80   0   0   0
Junction    59  87  57  92 /  90  20   0   0
Brownwood   58  83  56  86 /  90  10   0   0
Sweetwater  57  82  57  88 /  60   0   0   0
Ozona       56  84  56  88 /  80   0   0   0
Brady       59  82  58  86 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...EPZ