014
FXXX10 KWNP 271231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

             Apr 27       Apr 28       Apr 29
00-03UT       3.00         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       2.00         3.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         3.67         2.67
12-15UT       3.67         3.00         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.33
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27  Apr 28  Apr 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27        Apr 28        Apr 29
R1-R2           40%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R1 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 27-29 Apr.