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000
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 15-Apr 17 2024

             Apr 15       Apr 16       Apr 17
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
06-09UT       0.67         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         3.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.00         3.33
18-21UT       2.33         1.33         3.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         4.00

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 15 Apr due to CME effects and CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024

              Apr 15  Apr 16  Apr 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 15 2024 0842 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024

              Apr 15        Apr 16        Apr 17
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 15-17 Apr.