Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 050830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONCENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...OMITT



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