Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
000
FXUS63 KTOP 190730
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
230 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming back up today to around 70 then mostly 50s and 60s
through this week.
- A couple small rain chances set up late Thursday over southern
areas then again across portions of the area on Friday.
- By the last half of this coming weekend a larger storm system
begins to impact the area. A chance for storms then possibly
snow as the system exits the region next Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Across the CONUS, a broad trough has shifted east with primary axis
extending through the New England region along the east coast.
Subtropical flow remains south over northern Mexico through south
Texas along the Gulf coastal region. The Rex blocking pattern over
the west is beginning to break down over western Canada as the ridge
is beginning to break down as weak shortwaves enter the northern
stream from the northern Pacific. Meanwhile the cutoff cold core low
over the Desert Southwest is still evident and beginning to
gradually fill. High pressure has shifted south of the region and is
now over the southern Mid MS Valley region with return flow into the
area increasing. One of the weak shortwaves emanating from the
northern Pacific is quickly tracking into the northern Plains and
Mid MS Valley region this morning. An associated cold front is being
pushed along near the surface and will influence the area with FROPA
taking place this afternoon and into the evening.
This weak cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures back to
the area Wednesday especially northern areas with 50s north and 60s
over southern zones. The western blocking pattern is progged to
continue to break down allowing for the old cutoff low over the
southwest to continue to fill and translate east phasing with the
northern stream flow by late Wednesday into Thursday. The track of
this open wave continues to be favored to the south of the region.
Any precipitation chances look minimal and remain over central and
east central areas only around 15-20% chance overall. Another quick
moving Pacific system glances the area within northwest flow aloft
into Friday morning bringing around 20-30% of light precipitation to
northeastern KS areas.
The best rain and storm chances into the last part of the weekend
still look variable with a decent amount of spread amongst long
range ensemble solutions. As a large Pacific trough digs and deepens
over the western CONUS, southwest flow over the central Rockies will
help induce a deep lee trough increasing wind and theta-e advection
across the area into Sunday. Rain and storm chances should increase
with timing and position of fronts being the primary element of
uncertainty which give a large degree of uncertainty to any
potential severe threat at this time. Also, another question is how
the system matures and evolves over the area. The deformation zone
that results should have sufficient CAA to develop a late winter
system. How much of that impacts north central into northeastern
Kansas will become more of an important question to answer looking
ahead into early next week Monday/Tuesday time frame as the system
exits the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A quick moving weak frontal system works through the area from
midday through the afternoon period. Winds continue to veer from
the S to SSW into midday then change from the NNW to N for
through the balance of the period. A few gusts develop into this
morning ahead of the front then tend to drop off into this
evening behind the front. No significant aviation hazards
expected as FROPA should be a dry passage.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake