Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 241737
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Last day of extreme heat potential today, with the realization of
the heat somewhat uncertain. The breaking down of the upper ridge
has allowed significant mid and high cloud into the area, with
periodic scattered convection developing. Recent uptick in coverage
in northeast Kansas seems to be ahead of a weak wave per RAP
analysis, but a more potent wave is evident on water vapor and radar
imagery was over east central Colorado. Surface observations showing
weak cold front pushing southeast into the state with modest though
persistent pressure rises behind it.

Expect scattered to broken mid and high cloud to dominate skies
today. Hard to rule out elevated precip for much of the area through
the day. Models weaken the nearer wave this morning, but bring the
Colorado wave into central Kansas in the late afternoon. Surface
front looks to stall out over central portions of the local area
this afternoon, with convergence along it rather weak, and an
obvious focus for precip along it is not apparent, but would expect
most coverage this afternoon and this evening to be near and north of
it. Northwest areas should see the most notable cooling compared to
recent days, but 850 and 925mb temp progs keep values near to
slightly above Saturday`s levels in the southeast. Despite the cloud
and precip potential, have followed the path of least regret and
kept highs in the middle and upper 90s along and south of I-70, with
some higher dewpoints pooling just north of the boundary. This keeps
apparent temps in the 103-107 range in this area and keeps the
Excessive Heat Warning going as-is. If these temps can be realized,
ML CAPEs near 2000 J/kg will bring some concern for isolated severe
downdrafts this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Convection may be ongoing during the morning hours on Monday from
overnight convection. Most of the area should dry out for the rest
of the day as high pressure builds south into northeast Kansas. The
frontal boundary will stall along the Oklahoma border in the
afternoon and should focus convection there in the afternoon and
evening. The western portion of the front will move northeast as a
warm front across western and central Kansas. The low level jet of
25 to 30 kts is forecast across western Kansas into western
Nebraska. Precipitation chances remain low Monday night into Tuesday
with the front south of the CWA and the moisture advection remaining
to the west and northwest of the forecast area. Tuesday night a
shortwave will move southeast out of Wyoming and southeast into Iowa
Wednesday morning. The front is forecast to lift northeast as a warm
front Tuesday night and should extend from south central South
Dakota into northwest Missouri by Wednesday morning. Some elevated
storms will be possible as the front lifts northeast, however the
better forcing will remain north across Nebraska. An MCS may form
and move southeast and clip parts of northeast Kansas, so will keep
highest precipitation chances across the northeast. A wave is
forecast to move across Kansas and Nebraska Wednesday night in the
northwest upper flow. A frontal boundary will lay across southern
Nebraska however there is not much in the way of convergence along
the front and the low level jet veers to the southwest and remains
under 20 kts. Another upper trough is expected to move southeast
across the Plains Thursday night which will bring a cold front
through the CWA as it does so. The front looks to stall in southern
Kansas. Small chances for precipitation will remain into the weekend
with occasional waves affecting the Central Plains, however the
deeper moisture will be across Oklahoma and southern Missouri late
in the week. Cooler temperatures are expected in the medium and
extended period with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Lows int he lower
70s cooling into the 60s toward the end of the week and into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening into the
overnight as a weak cold front moves across the area. Winds will
remain light and variable through the afternoon before becoming
predominately from the north this evening.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg



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