Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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657
FXUS63 KTOP 022027
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Weak mid level perturbation this afternoon was noted tracking
southward through the central plains. Subsidence ahead of this wave
and behind the departing trough axis has helped to clear skies over
far northern Kansas where temperatures have recovered into the lower
60s. Further south, thicker cloud cover has held readings in the
50s.

The incoming wave is progged to impact western Kansas this evening,
keeping the CWA dry with lack of moisture observed through the
atmosphere. Lesser clouds through the day time on Tuesday will help
highs reach closer to normal values in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. Very weak lift from the NAM and WRF tries to develop a
hundredth of qpf at best along the weak frontal boundary by 00Z
Wednesday. Do not believe there is enough moisture below 750 mb to
have this reach the sfc so have kept a dry forecast for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Sensible weather remains generally quiet through the week and
early weekend. Cooler temperatures continue into Wed and Thurs as
upper flow continues nearly due north south and advects cooler air
southward. After a few days of highs in the 70s, as highly
amplified upper ridge translates overhead and becomes
southwesterly flow into the weekend, highs rise into the lower 80s
by Friday into Saturday. Latest runs of EC and GFS keep the
eastern upper lows progressing off to the east, allowing the upper
low over the Great Basin to move eastward through late weekend
into early next week. Will keep storm chances for Sunday and
Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures back into the 70s. With
moisture starting to return from the gulf and jet streak moving
over the area on Monday, will have to watch and see how the
pattern evolves for storm potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Cloud-cover
will continue to decrease at all terminals throughout the
afternoon. Winds will remain under 10 knots while shifting to the
southwest overnight.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Baerg



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