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000
FXUS63 KTOP 130909
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
409 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY 12Z TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

TODAY...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN KS.
SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR AT 850MB NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 19 DEG C
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT 900 MB
ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ADVECT SHALLOW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE THE UPPER 50S.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERED TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AND ADVECT EVEN
WARMER AIR EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA. IT WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR IN THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN DEWPOINTS LOWERING FROM THE LOWER 50S AT MIDDAY IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE MIDDLE 40S BY PEAKING HEATING. WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH LEVELS
TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WITH BORDERLINE RH VALUES FOR RED
FLAG CRITERIA AND PERCENT GREEN HAVING STEADILY INCREASED WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS AND RECENT PRECIP...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MODEL TRENDS
FOR DEWPOINT/RH FOR TUESDAY AND AN UPDATE ON PERCENT GREEN LATER
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO ADDRESS WHETHER OR NOT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PRIMARILY THE WESTERN CWA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO WARRANT A REDUCTION IN HIGHS FROM TUESDAY
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
THE RULE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE FROM THE WEST.

AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OR ITS POTENTIAL
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE CWA AND AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN STRONGER CAPPING. EITHER WAY...WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SHOULD OCCUR. INHIBITION DOES DECREASE AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT
TO CALM WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS 16Z-18Z THEN VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 01Z TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53