854
FXUS63 KTOP 280536
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1236 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms continue through the overnight hours. Heavy rain
  and lightning are the main hazards of concern tonight.

- A few strong storms could develop again Sunday in eastern KS as a
  front continues to move through the area.

- Active pattern continues through next week with several more
  chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mid-level trough has been moving through the Four Corners region
throughout the day. Associated sfc warm front has been slowly
pushing north across the forecast area, and is near the KS/NE border
as of 20Z. The dryline appears to be well southwest of the area,
although this has been obscured by the ongoing convection in
northern OK and south central KS moving northward into east central
KS. Our initial round of storms early this afternoon developed along
the warm front, and a wake low developed in southwest portions of
the area helping to push the boundary north. The outflow from this
initial activity has led to a substantial decrease in instability
across most of the area, with the exception of our far eastern
counties where there is still upwards of 3000 J/kg of CAPE. Any
additional severe storms at this point would need to be able to move
into those areas out of the cluster of storms coming from OK. The
CAMs are still suggesting repeated rounds of storms with heavy
rainfall to move through much of eastern KS this evening and
overnight, with another batch developing toward central KS towards
06-07Z. It is also around this time that Pwat approaches or exceeds
1.5", especially in east central KS. Decided to add Geary, Riley,
and Marshall Counties to the Flood Watch factoring in the initial
round of storms today plus recent trends in the CAMs, suggesting
those areas could see more locally heavy rain through the overnight
hours. Still have highest confidence in east central locations,
however.

Heading into Sunday, the upper low is still progged to be in NE/SD
with the sfc low progressing northeastward through KS/NE. While
parameters don`t look nearly as high as they did for today,
instability and shear would again be supportive for severe weather
for any storms that develop in eastern KS ahead of the cold front.
Will need to also monitor how well the atmosphere is able to recover
following the overnight convection after it moves out, but forecast
soundings at TOP currently suggest capping should erode by 18-19Z.
Any storms that develop should move out of the area through the
evening.

Monday looks to be the one dry day in the upcoming week before an
active pattern commences once again. Broad upper troughing is
progged to develop across much of the northwestern CONUS and deepen
over the western US by mid-week. Multiple perturbations within that
flow aloft lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
onward during the work week. Timing and placement of any of these
storms are uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Rain and embedded thunderstorms will impact sites for much of
the night. Ceilings could fluctuate with storms around, but
think MVFR conditions will settle in after 11Z. Some IFR CIGS
could also occur for a few hours Sunday morning as rain tapers
off briefly, before VFR returns midday. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible, especially at KTOP & KFOE during
the afternoon Sunday. A few storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey