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000
FXUS63 KTOP 121148 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION...A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORCING IN
REPUBLIC COUNTY. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CLOUD...REPUBLIC AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO IOWA WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BISECT THE CWA BY MIDDAY AND CROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
MID LEVELS...WEAK FORCING AND INHIBITION AT THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FCST. EVEN DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST TONIGHT AS WELL WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE EARLY
ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE MORE IN CHECK FROM YESTERDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL MAKE WAY FOR COOLER...BUT MORE TYPICAL MID
JUNE READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN KS. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THURSDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPS COOLING THE MOST ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY
THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INTO THIS REGION. SO EXPECT ELEVATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LEFT THURSDAY DRY AS MODELS STILL
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF INHIBITION WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVER THE AREA...AND THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY
MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO
AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP OVER EASTERN KS WITH NO
OBVIOUS WAVE. THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DIURNAL MIXING. AS 850
TEMPS WARM BACK UP TO 21-27C...EXPECT THESE TEMPS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE ADIABATICALLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MILD AS
WELL WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED.

SATURDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. INITIALLY A
WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO EASTERN KS
BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAKENING
INHIBITION...THINK THERE COULD BE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. LEFT POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE THERE REALLY IS NOT SURFACE FEATURE TO FOCUS
STORMS. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE MODELS ALL SEEM TO BE SIGNALING
ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
KEPT A 50 PERCENT POP THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND THE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...TEMPS SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS DIFFERENT
AMONG THE MODELS. SO BEGRUDGINGLY HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LOW POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE RAINING
THE WHOLE TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE EITHER. HAVE KEPT
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEPING A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN KS AND THE THERMAL AXIS TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. COLD FRONT PASSAGE STILL EXPECTED AT KMHK BY 17Z AND AT
KTOP/KFOE NEAR 19Z AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN
DECREASE AFT 23Z. ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...63