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000
FXUS63 KTOP 221742
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
SLOW-MOVING NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM INCHES EASTWARD. A WEAK POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS IN
RECENT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRY
MID LEVELS. PERIODIC LOWER CLOUDS ALSO MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST
INTO KANSAS.

LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THOUGH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND IN DEEP BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURS THRU SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
DAY OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.
FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT POPS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA START TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE SENDS TRAILING PRECIP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MAY
DEVELOP PRECIP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. HAVE SPREAD POPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LLJ VEERS NE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN AND
BRINGS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WAVE PROPAGATES EAST SE THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE
AND AS PROGGED WOULD LINGER STORM CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM REMAIN
AS THE LLJ INCREASES AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN NE KS.

SUN-TUES...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND DIFFICULT TO
TIME AS SMALL ROUNDS OF SW ENERGY ROTATE NE OUT OF THE SWRN TROF.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE TO RESPOND TO THESE
WAVES...AS WELL AS NIGHTLY CYCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A RESULT. AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR FROM THE CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW OVER FAR
EASTERN IOWA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END VFR CIGS BY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CIGS MAY RETURN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...HENNECKE