Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
000
FXUS63 KTOP 151118
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Temperature fluctuations are expected this forecast period with a
few quick moving cold fronts impacting the region.
-Dry weather continues until the later half of next week when a
mid-level low approaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Early today, the cold front that moved through the forecast area
yesterday now sits well to our southeast while a surface ridge of
high pressure is centered over the northern High Plains. Aloft, an
H7 trough is moving over the central US and a large cutoff low
remains over southern CA. Throughout the day, surface high pressure
will expand over KS. Early morning cloud cover will dissipate as
drier air moves in, and winds will become light later in the day.
Temperatures should top out about five degrees above mid-March
averages today, in the low to mid 60s.
A digging H5 trough over south-central Canada will advance
through the Great Lakes region tomorrow, shunting a cold front
through northeast KS during the afternoon. West and northwest
winds will increase near that boundary as temperatures warm
into the mid and upper 60s. Post-frontal cold air advection
will create a few cooler days as we wrap up the weekend and
begin the next workweek. Temperatures Sunday should top out in
the 50s as northerly winds increase during the afternoon. A
chilly Canadian based surface ridge will then settle over KS by
Monday morning. Temperatures are forecast to range from the low
to mid 20s to start the day with afternoon temps struggling to
reach 50 degrees.
Strong southwesterly flow sets up briefly on Tuesday as high
pressure moves south of the region and a quick moving cold front
approaches from the north. The pre-frontal warm air advection
pattern will allow temperatures to warm to near 70 degrees area-
wide. The cold front will then move through dry with slightly
cooler temperatures expected midweek. The next chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday as the mid level cutoff low
over CA finally ejects out over the southern Rockies and High
Plains. NBM has POPs increasing through the day with a 30-50%
chance for rain and a few storms by next Thursday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR is expected this period. North winds just above 10 kts will
shift slightly to the north-northeast and become light by this
evening before shifting again to the west by the end of the
period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey