000
FXUS63 KTOP 130438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

A WARM DAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR
SURPASSING 100 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DRAGGING A SURFACE COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ON A
LINE FROM KICL TO KMHK TO KHUT AND BISECTS THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
AIR...AS THE AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY
COOLER...UNTIL YOU GET WELL INTO NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPS DROP TO THE
MIDDLE 80S. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING WINDS TO SWITCH FROM WSW TO NNE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN DRY AS SOUNDINGS SHOW OFF A BIT OF A CAP AS WELL AS A LACK OF
QUALITY MOISTURE. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY WHILE THE
RIDGE SHUNTS ANY PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AS THE
COOLER AIR MOVES IN TO THE AREA...BUT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE SKIES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

JL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE THURSDAY WILL VERY SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OF
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FIND MOST OF THE AREA WELL CAPPED OFF FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE LIFTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN KANSAS TO A WEAKLY CAPPED ELEVATED LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS NEBRASKA BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE IS WARRANTED IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE CAP
WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ONCE AGAIN SOME INDICATION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP OVER
EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO
FIRE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. FEEL THAT THIS IS AN UNLIKELY
SCENARIO BUT IF A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD PROBABLY BE STRONG.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE DRY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE TO BE MIXED DOWN.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO OKLAHOMA...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL COME LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN IT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LATE
AFTERNOON STRONG STORMS AND OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY APPEAR
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT QUALITY STORM ORGANIZATION...UNLESS OVERNIGHT
MCS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL SHEAR BALANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED A BIT BY ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER BUT STILL EXPECT
TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WITH THE WEAK FRONT
REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT HAVE LEFT AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING A FEW PERIODS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON ANY CONVECTIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH 10Z THEN DECREASE AND BECOME
NORTHEAST BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...53