Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 210815
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Surface high pressure currently moving southeastward through the
forecast area has allowed calm winds at the surface under mostly
clear skies. Temperatures are falling close to the dew point this
morning, but there are some high clouds that will pass over the
southern half of the forecast area. These clouds could inhibit
cooling by a degree or two at these locations. Regardless the
winds are not calm just above the surface so this will likely
prevent fog from developing with the exception of a few low lying
locations that could have some ground fog towards sunrise. Mostly
clear skies today and tonight as the high pressure retreats
eastward. Winds will come around to the south and highs will reach
the low to mid 80s today. Dew points will stay in the mid 50s
tonight, but the return flow will restrict temperatures from
cooling this low. Therefore expect lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Highs on Monday bump back up into the lower/middle 80s as mid
level ridging moves over the state and WAA returns behind the
departing surface high. Next shortwave progged to move over
eastern Kansas on Tuesday, with enough thin cape and mid level
winds to possibly generate some stronger storms as the wave lifts
through. Kept slightly higher chances on Tuesday night as frontal
boundary approaches northern counties toward Wednesday morning.
With flow aloft parallel to the surface front and the trof axis
lagging behind, boundary may remain over the area through
Wednesday night before getting a push to the south through
Thursday. Could see some locally heavy rainfall.  Temperatures in
the 80s Wed and Thurs drop to upper 70s by Thursday and Friday
behind the boundary. EC and GFS both bring another wave out of the
Rockies and over the area later Friday and into Saturday, and have
kept higher rain chances as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. It now appears
that any fog even in low areas at TOP/MHK is unlikely due to
observations of 15+ kt winds near 1000 feet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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