Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 220845
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
345 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

An upper level trough was progressing eastward into the Plains this
morning at 0730Z with the trough axis across western Kansas.
Precipitation was on the wane and should exit the eastern counties
by 09Z this morning. The upper trough will move over eastern Kansas
this morning with the axis moving into Missouri this afternoon.
Overall will see a decrease in clouds through mid morning in the
east with sunny skies expected by afternoon. Temperatures today will
top out in the upper 60s to around 70 with lower humidity as dry air
advection continues through the day. Tonight winds shift back to the
southwest on the on the backside of the surface high and troughing
in the western Plains which will keep winds in the 5 to 10 mph range
through the night. A cold front will move southeast across the
central Plains overnight as an mid level trough moves across the
northern Plains. However the front is forecast to extend from
northwest Iowa to across parts of north central and northeast Kansas
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The week ahead will feel like fall and bring much cooler air into
the region by Thursday and Friday night with possibly some rain/snow
mix over portions of the area.

Northwest flow sets up into Monday with a highly amplified ridge in
the west.  This will allow for a couple Alberta Low systems to
emerge out of southwestern portions of Canada and bring a few shots
of colder continental polar airmasses into the north central CONUS
and down into portions of the central Plains.  The first upper
trough dives into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley and
undergoes deepening and cyclogenesis on Monday pushing the first
cold front into the area by the morning hours.  A tight pressure
gradient should set up over the region and bring windy conditions
with CAA on both Monday and Tuesday.  Could flirt with advisory
level winds during these times. Probably some concern for very high
fire danger too over portions of north central KS with winds and
low RH in place. Colder air settles into the area by Tuesday night
with lows into the 30s and could be some areas of frost. Will hold
off on any headlines until later shifts should they become needed.

Temps rebound briefly on Wednesday as the first trough lifts into
the eastern Great Lakes and shortwave ridging takes its place.  The
second and more significant trough digs into the area Thursday and
deepens causing surface cyclogenesis mainly over the MS Valley into
the Great Lakes region again.  CAA increases into the Thursday night
and into Friday again with temps dropping into the low 30s and
possibly some 20s on Friday which may raise the need for a freeze
warning in the late growing season.  Precip chances remain small on
Friday.  This is a main model discrepancy at the current time.  GFS
is mainly dry with a dry slot through the region and the ECMWF
develops a frontogenetical response over portions of the area.  If
precip does fall, could be a rain/snow mix early Friday before
transition goes to all rain.  Too early to tell all the details, but
right now there will be cold air to work with at least.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
affect areas mainly along and east of a line from EMP to FNB
prior to 10Z--clearing from west to east. MVFR visbys are possible
in areas of heavier rain. VFR conditions are expected in the wake
of these storms for Sunday with light winds switching from NW to
SW late in the day.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Skow


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